Remnant Moisture From Former Hurricane Lorena & A Strong Cold Front Inbound.
Mescalero Apache Indian Reservation.
Between Ruidoso And Cloudcroft, NM.
Blog Updated At 2:05 PM MDT Thursday - New Graphics/Flood Watch Added.
How Wet?
Former Hurricane Lorena has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm this morning by the NHC. Her remnant moisture is already streaming northward and northeastward into the region. In southern and southeastern New Mexico, we are seeing this in the form of mid-high-level clouds. Lorena is forecast to continue weakening today into Saturday as she slowly approaches the central Baja Peninsula.
A strong southward-moving cold front is forecast to enter northeastern New Mexico Friday morning and backdoor its way southward and westward into Saturday. This front should arrive in southeastern New Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday morning. A much cooler airmass will accompany the frontal passage. This will knock our daytime high temps across the area down 10-20 degrees below normal this weekend.
Between the cooler airmass, clouds, and rain, it will definitely feel more like fall across the state this weekend. Some areas may be a little cooler than forecast if they stay socked in with the clouds and rain.
Abundant remnant tropical moisture will continue spreading into southern New Mexico today and overspread the state Friday into Saturday. This could limit instability over the area, especially if skies remain overcast with few breaks in the clouds. If there are breaks in the clouds that allow the sun to destabilize the atmosphere, then more robust thunderstorms will occur. Fewer thunderstorms would mean less of a flash flood threat, but more widespread thunderstorms would increase the flash flood threat over the state through the weekend.
Numerous to widespread showers and areas of steady rain look likely across much of the state Friday and Saturday. Embedded thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall, but how widespread these will be and how heavy the rains will be is still up in the air as of this Thursday morning.
Localized flash flooding will be possible in those areas of the state that receive the heaviest rains and thunderstorms Friday into Sunday.
There is the potential for the HPCC and Ruidoso Burn Scar flash flood threat to be high Friday through Sunday.
This is one of those situations where the forecast models are really struggling with the outcome of the remnant moisture from Loreana as it moves over the state. This could go either way, and we could see less rainfall and flash flooding than is currently indicated by some of the models, or more than is currently forecast. Stay alert and up to date this weekend, and be prepared for changes and updates to your local forecasts and be prepared to act accordingly.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1248 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 NMZ214-215-229-050600- /O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0048.250905T1800Z-250906T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northeast Highlands- 1248 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast New Mexico, including the following areas, in north central New Mexico, East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. In northeast New Mexico, Northeast Highlands. This includes the Hermit`s Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with localized rainfall rates near 2 inches per hour may lead to flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Guyer
Today.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures.
Friday Morning.
(Valid Today Through Noon MDT Sunday).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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