Albuquerque International Balloon Festival Forecast - Pattern Change Next Week.
Squam River Covered Bridge - Ashland, NH.
On Our Last Day in NH, I Took This Photo In The Pouring Rain.
Welcome to October...one of my favorite months of the year in New Mexico.
(Oct 4-12, 2025).
Our overnight lows are gradually coming down compared to a month ago. But they are forecast to be some 5 to 11 degrees above normal across much of the state tonight through the first of next week.
Our daytime highs are forecast to remain some 4 to 10 degrees above normal across southeastern New Mexico today through next Monday. Meanwhile, the western and northern sections of New Mexico will cool some 2 to 4 degrees below normal on Saturday and Sunday behind a Pacific cold front.
Friday and Saturday still looks windy across northeastern New Mexico as south and southwest winds are forecast to gust up to around 30-40 mph.
Next week's weather still looks interesting as the jet stream kicks a couple of upper-level storms across the Rockies and Desert Southwest. By the end of next week (10 days from now), a cooling trend will set in with an increased chance for precipitation. Whether or not tropical moisture from an East Pacific Hurricane gets pulled northwestward into the state around the 10th is still uncertain.
Over the next week to ten days, a significant pattern change will develop across the region. The models aren't handling this change very well, as is typical this time of the year. Expect to see changes in our local forecasts as we head into next week, with some potential surprises ahead.
Widely scattered to scattered t-storms may return to the Sacramento mountains by next Monday and Tuesday, while the southeastern plains are forecast to remain dry. T-storm activity will break out in some parts of western, central, and northern New Mexico this upcoming weekend, and increase in aerial coverage over other areas of the state next week.
This morning's run of the European (ECMWF) forecast model was still hinting at snow at the higher elevations (10,000' and above) of the northern mountains of the state. This morning's run of the GFS forecast models says no, that won't happen. It's way too early to know for sure.
Some of the selected heavier year-to-date rainfall totals include:
Sierra Blanca Snotel Near Ski Apache 26.60"
Alto (Ski Apache) CoCoRaHS 7.4 W 26.15"
Sapello CoCoRaHS 5.1 WNW 25.86"
Santa Fe Snotel 25.30"
Edgewood CoCoRaHS 1.8 SSE 24.16"
Crossroads SCAN 21.96"
Tucumcari CoCoRaHS 9.7 ESE 21.58"
Bell Canyon PWS NWS Of Mayhill 20.15"
Hope CoCoRaHS 25.9 SSW 20.00"
Lincoln CoCoRaHS 1.4 ESE 18.70"
Tucumcari Airport ASOS 18.39"
Clayton Airport ASOS 17.20"
Queen Raws 16.94"
Mayhill Raws 15.86"
Cannon AFB ASOS 15.47"
Red River PWS EW4171 14.93"
Santa Fe Seaton NWS Climate Co-Op Station 14.72"
Elk (SW Chaves Co) NWS Climate Co-Op Station 12.78"
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns Natl Park Visitor Center 11.92"
Dunken Raws 11.67"
Los Alamos NWS Climate Co-Op Station 11.45"
Portales NWS Climate Co-Op Station 10.83"
Roswell Airport ASOS 10.64"
Hobbs PWS FW0979 10.07"
Artesia NWS Climate Co-Op Station 9.83"
Hope NMCC 4.9 W 9.78"
Cimarron NWS Climate Co-Op Station 9.49"
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 8.83"
My CoCoRaHS Station 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 8.49"
Silver City - Grant Co Airport AWOS 7.89"
Midland/Odessa Intl Airport ASOS 6.50"
Eagle Nest NWS Climate Co-OP Station 6.43"
El Paso Intl Airport ASOS 6.35"
Chama NWS Climate Co-Op Station 6.28"
Albuquerque Airport ASOS 5.23"
Gallup Airport ASOS 5.20"
Lordsburg Airport AWOS 4.51"
Farmington NWS Climate Co-Op Station 4.24"
Truth Or Consequences NMCC 4.07"
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will continue across the region through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 An upper-level ridge will gradually build across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Thursday afternoon while surface troughing continues to take shape in the lee of the Rockies. Dry weather conditions will prevail through Thursday underneath mostly clear skies. High temperatures will trend warmer today and Thursday with afternoon readings mostly ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area, except for highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows will range in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 The upper-level ridge axis will continue to extend across west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday before weakening on Saturday as the next longwave trough deepens over much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will return to our forecast area through the weekend ahead of the trough, but deep layer moisture remains very limited, so dry weather conditions are forecast to continue through Sunday. The upper-level trough looks to remain oriented from the northern Rockies/Intermountain West to California during the early part of next week, while upper-level ridging tends to build westward across much of the state of Texas. Medium range model trends do show a slight increase in moisture across portions of our forecast area by the early part of next week when upslope flow could at least bring back a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to our higher terrain areas by Tuesday, but we overall anticipate dry conditions to persist over the majority of our area through early next week. Temperatures are expected to average several degrees above normal through the extended forecast period, with highs each day mostly ranging in the mid 80s to lower 90s with early morning lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s over most places. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 157 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Dry and warm weather prevails through Friday then rainfall chances increase from the west Friday night. Gusty south to southwest winds will also increase Friday and Saturday, creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles. - Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern New Mexico next week (moderate to high confidence). && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Sun is shining in the sky, there ain`t a cloud in sight... Mr. Blue Sky is living here today! Beautiful fall weather with clear skies and pleasant temperatures should be the norm all around New Mexico over the next couple of days. Subtropical ridging over the Land of Enchantment will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid and 80s, and even reaching the low 90s over parts of the southeast plains, including Roswell tomorrow. These temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Zonal flow today and subsidence aloft should keep things dry through Thursday. Overall, light winds throughout the region during the evenings, with clear skies allowing for efficient radiational cooling in valley areas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Friday afternoon will see the return of precipitation chances over parts of northern New Mexico and breezier conditions over most of the forecast area. A trough digging into the intermountain west will begin to introduce increased forcing for storms and stronger flow aloft, as well as push a cold front through the region over the weekend. Diffluent flow ahead of the system, especially near the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak at the base of the trough, should provide the ascent necessary for isolated to scattered showers to form over the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. At this time, instability looks to be lacking for Friday amd Saturday, but there should be enough CAPE and shear for a few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours in northern New Mexico. Lack of forcing and drier conditions should keep storm chances for the rest of the state at little to none. As the main trough axis swings through the central Rockies on Saturday, the primary weather concern for New Mexico will be breezy to gusty southwest winds. Guidance has once again continued to hint and increasing wind speeds for Friday evening and especially Saturday afternoon. Thirty to forty knot 700 mb winds should mix down to the surface with diurnal heating, creating gusty 15 to 25 mph winds for most of the region. Near wind advisory criteria conditions of 30 to 40 mph may be observed over the northeast highlands and northeast plains, where lee side surface troughing east of the Colorado Rockies may be able bring out some stronger gusts. Winds lessen heading into Sunday as the upper level trough begins to lift into the northern plains. As the cold front passes through New Mexico, temperatures will drop into the low 70s for most areas, while southeastern NM and the Rio Grande valley will remain in the 80s. Drier air behind the front should keep rain chances to a minimum on Sunday. Guidance has been less certain about the evolution of a backdoor front on Sunday night moving through northeastern New Mexico. Northeast locations such as Clayton look to get some breezy northerly winds as the front pushes through, but there is quite a bit of disagreement among models as to how far into New Mexico this front will advance and whether it`s more of a Sunday night or Monday morning event. Heading into next week, ensemble guidance continues to be in good agreement that long wave troughing will persist over the Great Basin. Slight subtropical ridging will once again allow for the subtropical jet to climb into the mid latitudes and provide favorable jet dynamics for storms to form over the Desert Southwest as tropical moisture begins to stream north from Baja California. Ensembles and deterministic solutions are quite similar for this far out in time, with GEFS, NAEFs, and ENS all showing precipitable water content 100% to 200% above normal for this time of year during the middle of the week, yielding higher confidence for scattered to numerous showers throughout the region. A yet to be named tropical system will be a big player on how much moisture will make it up into the Desert Southwest. The remnants of this system look to climb up through Baja California and into Arizona. The question at this time is whether New Mexico will be able to get some of the better forcing and moisture for heavy wetting rain, or will it only get the storm killing cloud debris. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - Dry conditions persist through the weekend. - Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier air mass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little breezy Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Flat zonal flow with an UL high over Mexico will keep us dry and warm today. This UL high will slowly build north through the remainder of the week, keeping us dry and warm. The high will center itself over us by Thursday before shifting into the Southern Plains on Friday. The eastward shift of the high will be courtesy of a sharply digging UL trough along the West Coast. Deepening southerly and southwesterly flow will allow subtropical moisture to flow northward. The GFS shows isolated to scattered QPF along the Arizona border Friday afternoon and evening, but the NBM is not buying this solution. The UL trough will continue to broaden throughout the weekend with NM coming under increasing influence of the trough. An embedded s/w within the growing long-wave trough will cross just north of the Four Corners into CO on Saturday. Lee troughing will develop, increasing our winds to the low-end breezy category as well as shifting direction from southeast to west, especially west of the Rio Grande. According to the Euro, this trough passage will also sweep out our moisture though the GFS keeps meager moisture around without any QPF. As we go into next week, our subtropical moisture tap begins to get reestablished. The GFS is the most aggressive with this tap bringing QPF to areas west of the Rio Grande, but the NBM holds low POPs to only our mountain regions. Just beyond the forecast window, both models show our weather coming under the influence of what would be "Priscilla" in the East Pacific for mid to late next week. Presently NHC has not assigned an Invest number to the tropical wave, but does label the area with an 80% chance of formation within the next 7 days. &&
New Mexico MesoWest September Rainfall Totals.
New Mexico MesoWest 2025 Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals.
(April - Sept 2025).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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