Scattered To Numerous Showers & T-Storms/Localized Flash Flooding

Cannon AFB (KFDX) Radar Outage

Scattered To Numerous Showers & T-Storms/Localized Flash Flooding - Freeze Coming To W/C/N NM.

- October 13, 2025

September 24, 2025.

Meredith, New Hampshire.

Remnant subtropical and tropical moisture from former Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond have been streaming northeastward into the Desert Southwest for nearly a week now. This abundantly rich moisture surge has helped produce some very impressive storm total rainfall amounts, and they are not done yet. Many locations in parts of Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico have measured 1" to 3".

Flash flooding has occurred in many areas, and among the hardest hit is the Pagosa Springs, Colorado area.

Some of the selected higher storm totals that I have been able to find include the following:

Arizona:

Scottsdale CoCoRaHS 9.8 NNW 6.21"

Horse Mesa Dam SRP - NE of Phoenix 5.19"

Renaissance Wash - E of Phoenix 4.92"

Alamedia SRP - SE Phoenix 4.36"

San Xavier-Black Mountain Ea 3.43"

Pinaleno Park in Grahman County 3.35"

Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport ASOS 3.05"

Colorado:

Upper San Juan Snotel - NE of Pagosa Springs 7.70"

Weminchue Snotel - NW of Pagosa Springs 6.70"

Bayfield CoCoRaHS 7.0 N 4.63"

New Mexico:

Santa Fe CoCoRaHS 2.7 SE 5.93"

A Pacific cold front and a backdoor cold front will knock our temps down below normal in New Mexico Thursday night and Friday morning and into next weekend. Areas in western, central, and northern New Mexico that have yet to have their first freeze are expected to do so starting Thursday night and Friday morning.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Rain chances taper off to the northwest through Tuesday
  afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light.

- Temperatures will remain above normal into next week. A Pacific
  front Friday, and a cold front over the weekend, will cool
  temperatures slightly.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
131 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of
  precipitation occur through Tuesday night. The flash flood risk
  will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm
  Raymond crosses the state, isolated flash flooding remains a
  concern, especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso. Elevated
  flows in main stem rivers across northwest New Mexico will
  continue.

- Dry and breezy conditions will return Thursday through the end
  of the week.

- Freezing temperatures are expected for much of northern, western
  and portions of central New Mexico Friday morning. This will be
  the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley,
  San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. Should these areas
  not freeze Friday morning, a higher probability for the first
  freeze will exist for these zones along with the northeast
  highlands on Saturday morning.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1111 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants will bring scattered
   to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday night.
   Storms may result in localized flooding.

 - Isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by dry
   and temperate weather Thursday through the weekend. Near
   normal temperatures for mid-October.

&&

MRMS 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 2:20 PM MDT Monday, Oct 13, 2025).