Seasonalbly Cool With Scattered To Numerous T-Storms.
Carlsbad Sunset.
A cold front has been slowly backdooring its way south and west across the eastern plains overnight into this morning. By sunset this evening, it will be draped along a line from Farmington to Socorro to just south of Carlsbad. Cooler air will continue to work its way south and west behind the front.
Low clouds and areas of dense fog blanket parts of the eastern plains this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM MDT.
Hurricane Priscilla looks impressive on this morning's satellite images, but so far, none of its subtropical moisture has found its way northeastward into New Mexico. Interestingly enough, late this upcoming week into early next week, another Hurricane (Raymond) is forecast to follow a similar track to Priscilla and eventually eject its remnant subtropical moisture into the state.
Scattered to numerous showers and t-storms will break out across much of the state today into tonight. Some of these may continue into Wednesday morning. A few marginally severe t-storms will be possible mainly over central and eastern New Mexico today into this evening. The main severe weather threats will be large hail, damaging t-storm wind gusts, locally heavy rain that may produce localized flash flooding, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.
Heavy rainfall from numerous showers and t-storms will produce flash flooding in some of these areas today into this evening. Especially over much of central and eastern New Mexico, including the central and south-central mountain chain and the Ruidoso burn scar areas. These storms may produce storm total rainfall amounts by Wednesday night of 1" to 3" with isolated higher amounts possible.
As has been the case so many times this past summer and so far this fall, the southeastern plains will be one of the areas least favored for heavy rainfall today into Wednesday. Scattered t-storms will dot our skies, but the heavier rains and flash flood issues will remain off to our northwest and north.
A pattern change continues into this weekend and beyond, and a series of long-wave mid-upper-level troughs of low pressure dive southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska into Northwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This will be more of a typical fall pattern that will keep our weather unsettled over the next week to ten days at least.
Weather on this day...Oct 7th:
Strong downbursts from a severe thunderstorm in Eddy County caused damage to multiple homes on this day in 1997. One trailer just south of Otis was destroyed when the strong winds blew the trailer over and rolled it. Another trailer that was strapped down had a few windows broken, and its door was warped. As the storm moved north-northwest, it uprooted a row of 30-foot trees. Another house had half of its tin roof ripped off, and numerous telephone poles were toppled.
In 1999, an upper-level low-pressure pressure moving through Colorado strengthened the pressure gradient that amounted to a marginal high wind event in the Guadalupe Mountains. Sustained winds reached 40 mph through Guadalupe Pass, and a peak gust of 62 mph was recorded by the Guadalupe Bowl RAWS site.
Eagle Nest recorded a low of 3 in 1955.
Red River recorded a low of 14 in 1955.
Quemado recorded a low of 18 in 1948.
Gallup recorded a low of 19 in 1998.
Ruidoso recorded a low of 19 in 1952.
Las Vegas recorded a low of 23 in 1970.
Cloudcroft recorded a low of 23 in 1955.
Elk recorded a low of 25 in 1952.
Hope recorded a low of 26 in 1924.
Mescalero recorded a low of 27 in 1952.
Mayhill recorded a low of 27 in 1952.
Portales recorded a low of 29 in 1952.
Tatum recorded a low of 29 in 1952.
Albuquerque recorded a low of 19 in 1913.
Los Lunas recorded a low of 29 in 1969.
Artesia recorded a low of 33 in 1952.
Roswell recorded a low of 34 in 1952,
Carlsbad recorded a low of 35 in 1952.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1043 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .Thunderstorm activity should develop this afternoon over portions of central and eastern New Mexico and expand in coverage across eastern New Mexico tonight. These storms or clusters of storms could produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. NMZ221>224-233-237>239-080300- /O.EXA.KABQ.FA.A.0056.251007T1800Z-251008T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Guadalupe County-De Baca County-Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County- 1043 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall could expand over central and portions of eastern New Mexico overnight. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, and southeast New Mexico, including the following areas, in central New Mexico, Central Highlands, Eastern Lincoln County, Estancia Valley, Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood and South Central Highlands. In east central New Mexico, De Baca County and Guadalupe County. In southeast New Mexico, Chaves County Plains. * WHEN...Through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central mountains and move east over Torrance County later this afternoon. This activity may expand in coverage and push to the east or southeast overnight impacting Guadalupe, De Baca and Chaves Counties. Thunderstorm activity continuing over many of the same areas could lead to areas of excessive rainfall and flash flooding as as result. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ NMZ226-080300- /O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0056.251007T1800Z-251008T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ South Central Mountains- 1043 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. This includes in the Ruidoso area burn scars. * WHEN...Through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Two main rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one this afternoon and another during the late evening will threaten repeat rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Overpeck
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 604 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - A cold front is expected to approach the area today, bringing cooler temperatures areawide and chances (10-35%) of isolated showers/storms across southeast New Mexico. - Near zero rain chances and hot temperatures return late week into the weekend. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms return to areas of central and eastern NM today. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten flash flooding over low laying and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon and evening. - There is a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms to become strong to severe producing frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 451 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Weather observations showing persisting 100% humidity and the NMDOT webcam at Clines Corners showing near zero visibility. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Central Highlands thru 10 am MDT. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 623 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday with some locally heavy rain possible, favoring northern and eastern areas. - Drier conditions Thursday through Saturday, possibly trending back up Sunday and Monday. &&
At 6:30 AM MDT This Morning.
(At 7:50 AM MDT This Morning).
Sandwich Satellite Image.
Mid-Level Water Vapor Image.
New Mexico GeoColor Satellite Image.
(As Of 8 AM MDT).
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Today).
Forecast Storm Total Rainfall/Snowfall Amounts.
New Mexico 3-Day Rainfall Totals Forecasts.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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