Riding The Temp Rollercoaster - Severe T-Storms Thursday.
Near Ashland, New Hampshire.
Sweater Weather In The Mornings - Shorts In The Afternoons.
Some of the coldest overnight low temperatures of the season blanketed the state this morning after near record highs on Monday afternoon. This is the time of the year when we can and often do see large diurnal temperature swings between morning lows and afternoon highs.
Carlsbad reported a high yesterday of 93 and a morning low of 47. Roswell reached 90 Monday afternoon after a morning low of 44 and a low this morning of 43. The NMCC Station just NW of Roswell reported 39 this morning, and the NMCC Station just N of Roswell reported 36. The Clovis Municipal Airport AWOS reported 37, and the Smokey Bear Raws near Ruidoso 35.
Bell Canyon, NW of Mayhill in the Sac's, reported a low of 26 this morning. Weed checked in with 32. The Angel Fire Airport AWOS reported 17 this morning.
It was also a tad breezy across parts of New Mexico yesterday. The Rowe NMDOT Automated Weather Station (in San Miguel County) clocked a peak gust to 60 mph. Clines Corners registered a peak gust of 52 mph, and Pine Springs in the Guadalupe Mtn's Natl Park 50 mph.
A Pacific mid-upper-level low will finally begin working its way eastward towards the state today into Thursday. Thursday night into Saturday, it will swing across northern New Mexico, then dive southward into southeastern New Mexico by sunset Saturday.
Ample lift, instability, and low-level moisture will accompany this storm Thursday into Saturday to produce scattered showers and t-storms over the state. Severe t-storms will be possible across central, eastern, and southeastern New Mexico on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and perhaps isolated localized flash flooding may occur on Thursday into Thursday night with the stronger severe t-storms.
The GFS and ECMWF models are hinting that some higher mountain peaks near the NM/CO border may see some of the white fluffy stuff Thursday evening into Friday. At this time, less than 4" is being forecast, but this could change if the approaching storm slows down and drops further south than currently forecast.
Long-range models forecast another storm to impact the region just before and during Halloween. This one may be a windbag for us, though.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1249 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 - Low (10-30%) rain chances for the higher elevations into the Permian Basin Thursday and Friday. A few strong to severe storms are possible with wind and hail the primary threats. - High temperatures bounce around the 80s this week as weak cold fronts move through the area. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1242 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 PM MDT Tue Oct 21 2025 - A Pacific storm system will bring light precipitation across much of New Mexico Wednesday through Friday. However, an exception may be across east central New Mexico Thursday when a few strong thunderstorms with hail and brief downpours will be possible. &&
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NM TO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible beginning late afternoon Thursday across parts of the Southwest and continuing into Thursday night over the southern Great Plains. ...Southwest/Southern Great Plains... A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will reach the southern Rockies by early Friday, as a separate impulse moves across northern Baja/Gulf of CA. This will reinforce a positive-tilt orientation to the broader trough and support only a weak lee surface cyclone over the southern High Plains. Another day of low-level moisture return from the TX Coastal Plain should yield a plume of moderate buoyancy reaching the Permian Basin to southwest OK by Thursday afternoon. More limited moisture is anticipated farther north/west, supporting weak buoyancy. But this will be compensated by stronger large-scale ascent accompanying the leading shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the Four Corners by mid-afternoon, with isolated storms arcing southeast to southward over central to eastern NM. Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells as storms mature in the late afternoon, capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind. A mesoscale corridor of more concentrated supercell potential may evolve downstream on Thursday evening as storms impinge on the aforementioned moderate buoyancy plume in west TX. Otherwise, increasingly widespread elevated convection should occur on Thursday night from west TX through much of OK. This should foster a rather messy mode, with transient supercells/semi-organized clustering relegated to the southern portion of the broader convective plume. An isolated severe threat may persist in this regime overnight. ..Grams.. 10/21/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2106Z (3:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
(Valid From 6 AM MDT Tuesday, Oct 21 - 5 AM MST Thursday, Nov 6, 2025).
Wednesday.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
(Valid Today - 6 PM MDT Sunday, Oct 27, 2025).
Monday's Highs.
Tuesday Morning Lows.
New Mexico MesoWest Peak Wind Gusts Monday.
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 305 PM MDT Mon Oct 20 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS SINCE MIDNIGHT... Location Speed Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... I-40 @ Sedillo Hill (NMDOT) 43 MPH 0250 PM 10/20 10k 37 MPH 0738 AM 10/20 ...Chaves County... Dunken 2 NE (Dunken) 35 MPH 0636 AM 10/20 Bitter Lake WL Refuge 14 NNE 35 MPH 0137 PM 10/20 ...Colfax County... Angel Fire Airport 47 MPH 0635 AM 10/20 Ute Park 3 N (Cimarron) 40 MPH 0309 AM 10/20 Raton Crews Airport 35 MPH 1040 AM 10/20 ...Curry County... Clovis 45 MPH 1139 AM 10/20 Cannon Air Force Base 38 MPH 1134 AM 10/20 Clovis Muni Airport 38 MPH 1201 PM 10/20 Grady 35 MPH 0930 AM 10/20 ...De Baca County... East Fort Sumner 39 MPH 1125 AM 10/20 ...Guadalupe County... SE Vaughn 46 MPH 1115 AM 10/20 Puerto De Luna 3.3 E 42 MPH 0445 AM 10/20 Thompson Cattle 41 MPH 0210 PM 10/20 Newkirk 40 MPH 0855 AM 10/20 Santa Rosa Airport 36 MPH 0155 PM 10/20 ...Harding County... Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon) 40 MPH 1005 AM 10/20 ...Lincoln County... Nogal 38 MPH 0215 PM 10/20 Roswell No. 2 Portable 35 MPH 0220 PM 10/20 ...Mora County... Bartley 49 MPH 0302 AM 10/20 ...Quay County... Tucumcari Muni Airport 43 MPH 0927 PM 10/19 Quay 6.2 S 37 MPH 0900 AM 10/20 Endee 2 SW 36 MPH 0756 PM 10/19 ...Roosevelt County... Dora 2 SW 38 MPH 1042 AM 10/20 Tolar 12 SE 36 MPH 1229 PM 10/20 ...San Miguel County... I-25 @ Rowe (NMDOT) 60 MPH 0515 AM 10/20 Lower Colonias 5 E (Pecos) 38 MPH 0714 AM 10/20 ...Sandoval County... Redondo (DRI) 38 MPH 1210 PM 10/20 ...Santa Fe County... Edgewood 42 MPH 1245 PM 10/20 I-25 @ La Bajada (NMDOT) 37 MPH 0220 PM 10/20 ...Taos County... 8 S Red River 47 MPH 0100 AM 10/20 ...Torrance County... Clines Corners 1 SSE 52 MPH 0937 AM 10/20 I-40 @ U.S. 285 (NMDOT) 50 MPH 0925 AM 10/20 Encino 38 MPH 1020 AM 10/20 ...Union County... Clayton Muni Airpark 38 MPH 1120 AM 10/20 SW Clayton 38 MPH 1155 AM 10/20 &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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