NWS Albuquerque 2025 -2026 New Mexico Winter Outlook.
Sunrise Between Hobbs & Carlsbad.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this upcoming winter is not looking good at all for New Mexico as far as snowfall is concerned. An early indicator of this was back this summer, when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation cratered to an all-time low.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term climate pattern that affects
the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and the weather patterns around it. The
PDO is a naturally occurring phenomenon that shifts between warm and cool
phases, with each phase lasting around 20-30 years (World Climate Service). A
brief summary of the PDO is also available from the Physical Sciences
Laboratory. The chart on the upper right shows a time series of the PDO since
the late 1800s. The July 2025 PDO value of -4.15 was the lowest on record.
Overall, it looks like we are in for another warmer and drier-than-normal winter. This does not bode well for the state's Ski Resorts, annual snowpack, and spring runoff. Not to mention that this will only add to an already bad fire weather situation due to the ongoing and worsening drought.
Given the upper air pattern that is beginning to set up across the northern hemisphere, I think that we will see several shots of arctic air into the eastern half of the state this winter. Some of these arctic invasions may be on the brutal side, temperature-wise.
Overall, this winter's snowfall across the state and nearby areas is currently forecast to be below normal, but that does not mean that we won't see some snowstorms impact the state and region this winter. History and climatology teach that there have been significant snowstorms in New Mexico during La Niña winters.
Another concern that I have is that the valleys and lowlands of eastern, southeastern, and southern New Mexico will once again be subjected to multiple duststorms this winter and next spring. Much like we've seen over the past couple of winters and springs.
Having been a lifelong resident of New Mexico for the past 67 years, I can tell you that our winter weather does not always play nice or as forecast. So don't be surprised if there are surprises this winter.
Please open up the link below to read the full article from the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office (NWS).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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