Unsettled & Increasingly Stormier/Winter-Like Weather Ahead Next Week.

- November 16, 2025

November 15, 2025.

Arteisa, New Mexico.

Park Junior High School.

Pattern Flip Starts Today.

Waiting for our weather to change to more fall-like or even winter-like conditions has been like being a kid waiting for Christmas to arrive in July. Painfully slow with much doubt that it will. Alas, it is finally starting to happen, and next week promises to be interesting.

But another day of near record to record high temperatures are once again in store for the southeastern plains today, with forecast highs in the low to mid 80s. This isn't normal, and these readings are more typical of late September and the first of October.

As a Pacific cold front approaches the state, combined with a negatively tilted mid-level short wave trough of low pressure, scattered lowland rain showers and high mountain snow showers will break out over western and north-central New Mexico this afternoon and overnight.

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and west of the Continental Divide later today and tonight. The higher peaks of the northern mountains, particularly the Tusas, are forecast to pick up a couple of inches of snow.

Gusty southwesterly winds around 40 mph will produce localized areas of blowing dust on I-10 near the Lordsburg area this afternoon. The Gila Region may see a few light rain showers.

Gusty westelry winds of 50-55 mph are forecast for the peaks and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, and the Central Highlands tonight into Monday. A Wind Advisory may be issued for these areas. Monday will also see gusty westerly winds across eastern New Mexico.

Life gets more interesting Tuesday through Friday when a stronger Pacific storm dives into the Desert southwest and tracks south of the state by the end of the week. Different solutions exist among the models, but suffice to say that this next storm will bring lower snow levels with higher mountain totals, and more widespread lowland rains to the state.

Current forecasts call for scattered rain showers across southeastern New Mexico Wednesday night into Thursday night. A mix of scattered rain and snow showers is currently being forecast for the Sac's Wednesday into Thursday night.

Scattered dryline thunderstorms may impact parts of West Texas, the middle to end of next week, with the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms.

As always, when viewing the attached various model forecast storm track loops and precipitation/snowfall forecasts with a grain of salt, this far out in time. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that various winter weather advisories may be issued across parts of the state next week by our local National Weather Service Offices.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Near record highs and dry conditions are expected today.

- A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures early next week.

- An upper-level system brings increasing rain chances and much
  cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
435 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 356 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected over western
  and north central New Mexico this afternoon and overnight. A few
  inches of snow are expected above 8500 feet, mainly near the
  Colorado border in the Tusas Mountains.

- A Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled
  conditions from Tuesday through Thursday, with mountain snow and
  valley rain.

- There is a moderate chance (50-70%) that winter highlights will
  be required for accumulating snow in the mountains with the mid
  week system.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
446 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Pacific low brings breezy southwest winds on Sunday. Gusts up
   to 40 mph possible in the afternoon.

 - Cooler temperatures Monday into next week behind a Pacific
   cold front, with scattered rain showers and high elevation snow
   possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

Surface Map Forecast.