Welcome To A Boring But Beautiful Start To November.
West Of Mayhill, New Mexico.
If you are a fan of beautiful, uneventful, even boring weather in November, then your number is up. Tranquil weather with above-average temperatures will rule the day (and nights) this upcoming week and beyond. The only fly in the ointment will be around next Thursday when an upper-level trough swings by to the north of the state, which will kick up the winds across the eastern plains.
A cold front is working its way westward through the western half of the state at noontime this Saturday after having moved southward down the eastern plains overnight and this morning.
Gusty northerly winds accompanied the frontal passage, and a Personal Weather Station (PWS) W5JXT in Roswell clocked a gust to 50 mph. The West Texas Mesonet Station 6 miles west of Whites City (Carlsbad Caverns) clocked a gust to 60 mph at 3:32 AM this morning with the frontal passage. Most locations across the eastern half of the state have gusted up into the 25-35 mph range.
These winds will die down later this afternoon, and with a cooler and drier airmass settling in over the area tonight, lows will be seasonably chilly. Most locations will see the 30's.
Next Tuesday looks rather toasty with highs forecast by this morning's run of the ECMWF model for Carlsbad near 90 while the GFS says 85. Next Thursday looks a bit breezy to windy from the central mountains eastward out onto the plains.
Over the next week to ten days, our weather will be more like September conditions than November. Our temperatures will run some 5 to nearly 20 degrees above normal starting Sunday and continuing into next week and beyond. Long-range forecasts don't indicate any significant weather for the state until at least the middle of the month.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 125 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 119 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - A warming trend returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures expected through the upcoming week. Dry weather conditions will persist through next Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The cold front that entered the region this morning continues to move south and has now cleared the Rio Grande. Temperatures have remained mostly in the 60s behind the front with gusty northerly winds slowly starting to diminish. Surface high pressure will settle over the S. Plain overnight allowing lows to drop into the 30s/40s areawide. Southerly winds return Sunday as mid level ridging builds back in from the west. Dry air and plenty of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb back into the 70s, with even some 80s along the river valleys. Southerly winds stay elevated Sunday night keeping temperatures mostly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The warming trend continues in the long-term period. Monday and Tuesday, the upper-level ridge parks over west Texas further increasing temperatures due to more subsidence. A surface high pressure system is also expected to be centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, veering warm winds from the south. As a result, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most locations both days. Quasi zonal flow takes shape in the upper levels by Wednesday shifting to westerly flow aloft. Guidance also shows a prevalent low-level thermal ridge developing over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon as a weak boundary approaches from the Texas Panhandle. This will push highs into the low to upper 80s for most locations which looks to be the warmest day next week. Lows throughout next week are not going to differ much being in the 40s to mid 50s each morning. By late next week, long range guidance is becoming in more agreement with a shortwave trough moving through portions of the Central Plains which will send a weak cold front to the region. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the exact timing and positioning of the trough. Latest trends show the cold front arriving later than previously predicted (late Friday/early Saturday) due to the slower progression of the trough. Nevertheless, dry conditions are anticipated to persist along with temperatures staying above normal for this time of year. Lamberson &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1140 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Remaining dry with highs generally around 5 to 15 degrees above average next week. - Breezy to locally windy conditions across the eastern highlands and northeast and east central plains Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A splendid 1st weekend of November is underway across the Land of Enchantment with some high clouds and generally light winds. Temperatures are cooler and slightly below normal across eastern NM behind last night`s backdoor front. Seasonably chilly tonight. A 589 dam upper high at 500 mb over Southern CA today moves over the state on Sunday. This will result in warmer and above average temperatures areawide. The most noticeable warming will be across eastern NM, with temperatures 12 to 18 degrees warmer, due to light downslope southwest and west winds. Not as chilly Sunday night with overnight lows 5 to 15 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 The upper high shifts to south Texas and northeast Mexico with weak southwest flow and a band of high clouds over the state on Monday. Temperatures across far northeast NM cool down a little closer to average due to a weak backdoor front moving through Monday morning. Temperatures still around 8 to 12 degrees above average across the rest of the state. Brisk westerly flow of 25 to 30 kts at 700 mb on Tuesday will result in breezy winds across the central highlands. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average across western NM and around 15 degrees above average across the eastern plains due to the downslope westerly flow. A weak upper level ridge moves over the state on Wednesday with light winds and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average areawide. Temperatures across northeast NM will be a little cooler than Tuesday due to another weak backdoor front moving through Wednesday morning. Westerly flow increases once again on Thursday as an upper level trough moves across the northern and central Rockies. 700 mb winds of 25 to 35 kts along with a ~1005 mb surface lee low across northeast NM will result in breezy to locally windy conditions across the eastern highlands and northeast and east central plains. Strongest winds will be across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and central highlands (i.e. Clines Corners and Vaughn) where max gusts will be around 45 mph based on ensemble guidance. Slightly cooler on Friday behind the Pacific front. Still breezy across the eastern highlands and northeast and east central plains due to another ~ 1005 mb surface lee low across southeast CO. Another broad upper level ridge moves over the region next weekend with temperatures slightly above average and light winds. A little more cooling across eastern NM on Saturday due to a weak backdoor front. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1055 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1055 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Quiet weather pattern into early November with no precipitation in the forecast. - Above normal temperatures and generally light winds expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A weak cool front has pushed through much of the forecast area and high temps this afternoon will be about 2-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. This will not last long as an upper ridge builds in through Sunday and we start to see a gradual warmup going into next week. Surface and upper level winds shift around to the west by Tuesday allowing the warmer air to continue through the week with near record highs. Models and ensemble means continue to be in good agreement with this main synoptic pattern over the area into next weekend. NBM temps continue to be warm on overnight lows with very dry air in place, especially in the typical cold valleys. I also trended high temps up a little bit as we get into Tue-Fri as westerly surface winds should allow for almost full mixing, even with an early Nov sun angle. Record highs in El Paso are in the 84-87 range, think we will stay short of these, but a couple days could get within a degree or 2. No precip expected through the period. &&
NWS Forecast High Temps.
Today.
Sunday.
Tonight.
Sunday.
GFS Temperature & Precipitation Outlook For Carlsbad.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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