How About Our First Winter-Like Storm This Coming Weekend?

- November 10, 2025

November 7, 2025.

Near Sitting Bull Falls.

Southwest Of Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Blog Post Updated At 4:08 PM MST, Monday, Nov 10, 2025.

Finally, those changes in our weather I've been talking about will come into play by Friday, into the first of next week. All three of this morning's deterministic forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) are forecasting a strong mid-upper level low to dig south from the Gulf of Alaska southward into California by Friday into the upcoming weekend. Then swing across southern or central New Mexico over the weekend.

Overall, a Pacific winter-like storm will begin to impact New Mexico's weather by Friday and continue into the weekend.

Lowland rain showers and mountain snows are being painted by the models this upcoming weekend. Current thinking on snow levels next weekend will be between 6,500' and 7,500' across the state's mountains. At least light to moderate snowfall looks possible over the state's mountains if not heavy in some higher elevations.

It's interesting that the models are painting moderate to even heavy rainfall/snowfall over parts of the state. I'd like to buy into this, but honestly, I'm thinking they may be a little too aggressive this far out in time with their rainfall and snowfall totals. Maybe not, we will find out by the weekend.

Veterans Day looks windy across eastern New Mexico with near-record to record daily high temperatures...including the southeastern plains where we will get up into the low to mid 80s. Thursday and Friday may be a couple of degrees warmer in some locations.

Strong southwesterly winds will ramp up on Friday across the state as a Pacific cold front and a strong closed mid-upper low approach from Arizona. There may be some areas of blowing dust across southern and southeastern New Mexico on Friday.

You know the drill: take the precipitation totals and snowfall totals depicted by the forecast models embedded within this blog post with a grain of salt. Expect changes in these as the models hone in on the details by mid to late week.

I am excited and hoping that our mountains get a decent snowstorm out of this, and those of us lowlanders at least get wet. Enough of September's weather, bring on an early start to winter.

I finally dropped down to freezing this morning at our home in Carlsbad with a low of 31.5°F recorded by my Davis Vantage Pro2 Wireless PWS located in my backyard. A light downslopping westerly wind off of the Guadalupe Mountain foothills kept the Carlsbad Airport ASOS from once again dropping to freezing. It's low this morning was only 37°F. Officially, a freeze hasn't occurred at Carlsbad at the airport, but PWS around town and the vicinity

have.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
439 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 437 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Breezy southwesterly winds expected Tuesday afternoon, keeping
  the area dry and warming temperatures back above normal.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue the rest of the week.

- An upper-level system brings cooler temperatures, gusty winds,
  and low (10-25%) rain chances this weekend.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
137 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

- West wind gusts up to 40 mph will impact areas from Clines
  Corners to Vaughn Tuesday. Temperatures will also warm to
  within a few degrees of record highs across eastern New Mexico
  Tuesday afternoon.

- Southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will return Friday over
  much of the region as a strong storm system approaches from the
  west.

- Confidence is increasing for cooler and unsettled weather this
  weekend. Valley rain and mountain snowfall may impact parts of
  the region between Friday night and Sunday. However, there is
  still a lot of uncertainty with the storm track, timing, snow
  levels, precipitation coverage and intensity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A weak shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Rockies
tonight will increase west winds along the central mt chain and
nearby high plains of eastern NM thru Tuesday. Model trends have
decreased wind gusts Tuesday but the area from near Clines Corners
to Vaughn and Clovis may still see a few gusts near 40 mph. Cirrus
will also spread south over the region late tonight and Tuesday. A
northeast wind shift has now trended a little stronger near Clayton
which may keep max temps a tad cooler than the rest of the area for
Tuesday. Otherwise, a few areas over eastern NM may be close to
record highs with the downslope flow regime. Lighter winds will
return to all areas Tuesday night with weak shortwave ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Flow aloft will flatten Wednesday and Wednesday night then begin to
back more out of the west/southwest Thursday. The main impact will
be increasing high clouds over the region with more above normal
temps.

Forecast confidence beginning Friday deteriorates considerably with
very little improvement to model agreement. The wave pattern over
the Pacific is very complex and it will likely take a couple more
days for models to come into better agreement. An upper level low
currently over the Aleutians is shown diving southeast toward the
west coast Thursday while phasing with an upper low already churning
several hundred miles off the CA coastline. This complex interaction
then moves eastward onto the west coast with a broad spectrum of
solutions from model guidance. Most deterministic models develop a
closed low over SoCal by Friday before pushing it slowly east along
the US/MX border and southern NM thru Saturday. The ECMWF is much
slower with a strong H5 low still over eastern NM Sunday. AI model
versions are even slower with the H5 low still over AZ Sunday. As
such, the latest forecast is almost strictly the NBM which drags the
higher precip chances and colder air across NM Saturday and Saturday
night. Folks planning travel across the region this weekend should
keep an eye on the latest forecast since there is potential for an
impactful burst of weather over the region, including strong winds,
valley rain, mountain snow, low visibility, and hazardous travel.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Morning temperatures near or below freezing for many areas
   again Tuesday morning.

 - Dry conditions with a warming trend through Thursday with no
   significant weather impacts.

 - A late-week storm system brings windy conditions on Friday and
   a chance of rain and high elevation snow showers late Friday
   through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Overall, models are in good agreement with the main synoptic
pattern over the next week but differ on details going into the
weekend storm system. To start the period, broad upper ridge will
pass over the area with warm days and cool nights. Tonight will
actually end up being the coldest night for many areas this
season. Winds will be light and skies will remain clear with dew
points in the upper teens to lower 20s. A few spotty areas did
reach 30-32 degrees in Luna, Dona Ana and the lower valley but not
the main population areas. It looks like at least Deming and areas
into Hidalgo County will get close to freezing tonight, but
current thinking is temps will just barely hit freezing for a
brief time and will not go with an additional freeze warning.

Going into the remainder of the week, a warming trend through
Wednesday/Thursday will bring back highs about 10 degrees above
normal with lows falling off into the mid 30s to mid 40s. NBM
temps seemed a little warm on lows and a little cool on highs so
adjusted a few degrees on the lowlands and 10+ degrees on lows in
the cold valleys. This will continue into Friday.

Big changes look to come by Sat morning as a deep cutoff low dives
through the Sierras and into Southern NM/Northern Mexico. GFS has
been bouncing around with placement of this low and with timing.
The trend with it has been slower which is a typical bias with
models on handling of these lows. EC and GFS along with ensembles
show a nice tap of moisture ahead of the low which bring some
light to moderate precipitation amounts across the area. Generally
0.10-0.25" for the lowlands with some higher amounts in the
mountains. There will be a switchover to snow Sat, starting out in
the Gila region in the morning and in the Sacs during the
afternoon. GFS has become colder with the core of the system which
would drop snow levels to the 6000-6500ft level while the EC is
keeping snow levels closer to 7500-8000ft. NBM seemed to handle
this difference reasonably and have a mix in the forecast in these
ranges. Could see several inches of snow in the highest
elevations. Temperatures cool significantly across the region with
highs starting Saturday with highs dropping 10-20 degrees and
another 5-10 degrees(at least out east) for Sunday. Some lingering
wrap around moisture could continue to affect the Sacs Sunday
depending on exact timing.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
457 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 457 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Near-record high temperatures and typical West Texas winds are
   forecast Tuesday.

 - Additional record highs are possible later this week.

 - Cooler this weekend with rain chances returning.

&&

GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast Loop.

(Valid Today Through 5 AM MST Mon, Nov 17, 2025).