Still Waiting & Watching For A Potential Change Late Next Week.

- November 08, 2025

November 6, 2025.

Looking Southwest From Carlsbad, NM.

Altocumulus Standing Lenticular Clouds (ACSL).

A cold front has passed southward through the eastern half of the state as of 1 PM MST. It will continue to move south and west (backdoor) through the rest of the state tonight into about noontime Sunday. A much cooler airmass will work its way south into the state later tonight into Sunday.

This is one of those weird cases when the coldest airmass associated with the frontal boundary lags far behind to the north. We won't see the colder air arrive in southeastern New Mexico until late tonight into Sunday, even though the front itself has already passed south of us.

There is quite a large temperature spread across this frontal boundary from the northern plains to South Texas. At 1 PM MST it was 18F with a wind chill temp of 4F in Crosby, North Dakota, and 37F in Rapid City, South Dakota. Denver was 52F, Clayton, 55F, Roswell, 77F, Carlsbad, 82F, Del Rio, Texas, 84F, and 97F in Rancho Las Comitas in far South Texas.

A Freeze Watch is in effect for Eddy County, southern Lea County, and parts of West Texas for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows will be close to 30°F.

Next week's weather continues to look rather uneventful and boring. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will continue unabated until next weekend. Downsloping westerly winds will get rather robust across the central mountain chain and eastern plains this coming Tuesday, with gusts up to around 45 mph possible. This adiabatic downslope warming may challenge some of our daily record highs in southeastern New Mexico on Tuesday.

Highs across southeastern New Mexico are forecast to be in the low 80s Tuesday, the upper 70s to near 80 Wednesday, the low 80s Thursday, and the low to mid 80s next Friday. These readings will be some 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

This morning's run of the long-range forecast models (GFS, GEM, ECMWF) continues to indicate a pattern change late next week into the weekend. We are still a week away from this, so there will be changes in our forecasts as we near the end of next week. Don't put a lot of stock in rainfall/snowfall amounts, locations, and timing with the model run loops I've embedded within this blog post.

The European (ECMWF) is the most aggressive forecast model with lowland rain showers and higher mountain snows breaking out across western New Mexico next Saturday, the 15th, and spreading east across the state into Monday, the 17th. The GFS is much drier, and the Canadian GEM model is a little closer to the Euro.

The Euro is hinting at light snow for the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains. With light to moderate amounts across the western, central, and northern mountains of the state.

Who gets rain and how much, who gets snow and how much, and who doesn't isn't set in stone this far out in time, so take all of this with a grain of salt and hope that a pattern change is coming with colder temps and precipitation.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
124 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- A cold front brings gusty winds this afternoon through early
  tomorrow morning, along with much cooler temperatures Sunday and
  Monday.

- The front yields high gap winds at Guadalupe Pass and Carlsbad
  Caverns National Park tonight into Sunday afternoon.

- Lows at or below freezing are forecast for portions of the
  Permian Basin, Southeast New Mexico, and in the higher terrain
  Monday morning.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
115 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

- A cold front will produce east wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph thru
  gaps of the central mountain chain tonight from the ABQ east
  side to Abo Pass and Carrizozo. Overnight lows will be much
  cooler in the wake of this front Sunday morning.

- West winds will strengthen along the east slopes of the central
  mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New Mexico
  Tuesday. Localized wind gusts around 45 mph are possible from
  Raton to Las Vegas, Clines Corners, and Vaughn. Temperatures may
  also warm to near record highs around Roswell Tuesday.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1042 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1028 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - A cold front arrives on Sunday, bringing much cooler
   temperatures and gusty east winds.

 - Dry conditions remain in the forecast through the middle of
   next week.

&&