Changes For Our Weekend Storm.

- November 12, 2025

October 25, 2025.

Cloudcroft, New Mexico.

Don't forget to go outside and look to the north after dark to see the northern lights again. Hopefully, they will put on as good a show, if not better than last night's.

Much as I had suspected, this morning's run of the forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) has done an almost about-face with their forecasts concerning this weekend's storm. All three have backed way off on the chances and amounts of lowland rainfall and higher mountain snowfall for the state.

No, I won't be surprised if they continue to waffle back and forth for the next couple of days until they get a better handle on the situation. Nor will I be surprised if we end up a little wetter and cooler than the current model forecasts are calling for. Next week looks active too.

A Pacific cold front is forecast to move from west to east across the state on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures to the state into the first of next week. Until then, near record to record high temperatures will once again be possible across eastern and southeastern New Mexico on Thursday into Saturday.

The western and northern New Mexico lowlands have the best chances of seeing scattered rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. Some areas, like Grants, may see a rain and snow mix Sunday into Sunday night.

Snow levels now appear to be around 8,000' or higher across western and northern New Mexico on Sunday, dropping Sunday night. Snow levels in the Sac's look to be above 9,000' Sunday night. If they manage to get snow...most likely across Sierra Blanca Peak if it happens.

This incoming storm is now forecast to wobble around off the California coast until Sunday, when it will swing eastward into the Great Basin by Sunday night and Monday and weaken. Two additional closed mid-upper level lows are forecast to drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest by the middle of next week. What effects they will have upon New Mexico are uncertain at this time.

We are in a progressive and transitory pattern with the Subtropical Jet Stream becoming more active with time. As is usually the case, the forecast models struggle at this time of the year, so changes within their storm tracks are likely. Which means that as we get closer to the weekend, going into next week, we will likely see changes in our local forecasts as new model runs come in.

Years With Seasonal Snowfall Totals Of 100" Or More In Cloudcroft.

(July Through June).

1904 - 05 122.0"

1913 -14 100.1"

1914 - 15 180.1"

1925 - 26 134.1"

1930 - 31 120.5"

1931 - 32 151.5"

1936 - 37 116.0"

1945 - 46 103.5"

1957 - 58 180.0"

1961 - 62 159.6"

1967 - 68 131.9"

1968 - 69 102.0"

1972 - 73 161.4"

1982 - 83 171.2"

1984 - 85 159.0"

1986 - 87 105.8"

1991 - 92 101.0"

1997 - 98 119.5"

2009 - 10 106.6"

1901 - 2024 Seasonal Average: 74.2"

My Photos Of Last Night's Auroras.

November 11, 2025.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Northern Lights - Viewed From C-Hill.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

- Near record warmth and dry weather conditions expected through
  the weekend.

- An upper-level storm system late this weekend brings cooler
  temperatures and gusty winds early next week.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
152 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

- Temperatures will warm to within a few degrees of record highs
  across eastern New Mexico Thursday and Friday afternoons, then
  again over some southeastern locations on Saturday.

- Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected mainly over
  western and north central areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
  decreasing coverage on Monday. Snow accumulation now looks to
  favor locations above 7500 feet with a few inches possible on
  higher peaks, except for locally higher amounts near the
  Colorado border

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1014 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1013 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Expect continued dry conditions with a warming trend through
   Friday.

 - A storm system this weekend has trended towards a more
   northerly track. This will mean breezy west winds on Sunday,
   with some isolated to scattered rain showers west of the
   Divide.

 - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week, and additional
   chances for light precipitation around the middle of next
   week.

&&

GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast Loop.

(Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Wed, Nov 19, 2025).