Lea County Sunrise.
Colder Temps Headed Our Way.
Monday marks the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec 1st), but other than a couple of snowstorms over the mountains so far, significant winter weather has avoided most of New Mexico.
A strong southward advancing backdoor cold front will push south through the eastern half of the state Saturday into Saturday evening. This frontal passage will be marked by northerly wind gusts of around 40 mph. If these winds are stronger than forecast across the eastern and southeastern plains, then I would think that there could be a few areas of brief blowing dust occurrences with the frontal passage.
Colder air will spread south and west behind the front Saturday into Monday. Low clouds are expected to develop across parts of the southeastern plains and parts of West Texas tonight into Saturday morning as low-level upslope flow ahead of the front develops.
A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy and Culberson Counties from Saturday night through Sunday morning. Northeasterly gap winds sustained at 35 - 45 mph will gust up to around 60 mph with the frontal passage and behind it.
Strong gap winds will also affect the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas as the front pushes westward.
Ahead of the frontal highs today and Saturday across the southeastern plains will range from the mid 60's to the mid 70's.
Highs on Sunday behind the front will range from the mid 30's to the low 40's across the northern mountains and northeastern and eastern plains, to the mid 40's across the southeastern plains, and the mid 50's to near 60 across the northwestern, southern, and southwestern lowlands.
Low temps Sunday into Tuesday mornings will drop into the teens to near 20 across the northern half of the state (including the Sacramento mountains), the upper 20's to near 30 across the southeastern plains, and the low to mid 30's across southern and southwestern New Mexico. As is usually the case, some sheltered valley locations will be a little colder, and I think that a few of these higher mountain valleys will see single-digit lows.
Lows across parts of the southeastern plains may drop down to near 20 Monday and Tuesday mornings, so our first hard freeze will be possible. If this happens, then our trees, which have been slow to change color and drop their leaves, will undergo a sudden dump of leaves after they turn black.
A Freeze Watch is in effect for parts of the Permian Basin of West Texas.
Wind chill temps will drop down to below zero over parts of northern and northeastern New Mexico Sunday morning, and the single digits over central and eastern New Mexico, with the teens to near 20 over southeastern New Mexico.
Mostly light with pockets of moderate snow are forecast for parts of northwestern, northern, and northeastern New Mexico Sunday night into Monday morning. Some roads may be icy and dicy.
A gradual warmup starts Monday afternoon and continues into Wednesday before another cold front and upper-level storm approaches and drops temps across the area Thursday.
Since I continue to be the bearer of bad news as far as winter goes, the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office has updated their 2025-2026 Winter Outlook, and it isn't good news.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Strong cold front to bring gap winds to the Guadalupe Mountains
and much below normal temperatures along with a first freeze to
many Sunday morning.
- Monday and Tuesday morning temperatures remain at or below
freezing for many.
- Brief warmup midweek before another cold front moves through by
the latter part of next week.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1049 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
- A backdoor cold front on Saturday will drop low temperatures
into the teens and 20s overnight.
- Some slick and icy roads from snow are forecast across the
northern and west central high terrain Sunday night into Monday
morning.
- Colder early next week with high temperatures slightly below
average across western and central New Mexico and well below
average across eastern New Mexico.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1016 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025
- Warmer than average temperatures continue Friday and Saturday
with dry and pleasant conditions.
- A cold front will push in Sunday morning bringing easterly
breeziness that morning and temperatures becoming below normal.
- Dry conditions, gentle warming, and light afternoon breezes
through midweek.
&&
(Valid From 5 PM MST This Afternoon Through 5 PM MST Sunday.)
Today.
Saturday.
Sunday.
Monday.
NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures.
Saturday Morning.
Sunday Morning.
Monday Morning.
Tuesday Morning.
Apparent Temperatures Sunday Morning.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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