Near Picacho, New Mexico.
Finally, The Wait Is Over.
Say what? Severe thunderstorms in southwestern New Mexico on Wednesday, and southeastern New Mexico and West Texas on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday?. Yes, you read that correctly.
A few marginally severe or perhaps a few supercell thunderstorms will be possible, with the main severe weather hazards being large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding.
A potent mid-upper level low centered north of LA this morning is forecast to drop slowly southward into southern California on Wednesday, then begin to swing eastward across northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona on Thursday.
By Thursday afternoon, it is forecast to open up and cross New Mexico as a secondary closed low develops over northern California. Then takes a similar path as the first closed low Friday into Sunday. The models vary on how far south the low drops into northwestern Mexico and then ejects northeastward into New Mexico.
Low-level southeasterly moist upslope flow from the Gulf of America returns to West Texas and southeastern New Mexico tonight into Wednesday. The dryline is forecast to develop and back west into southeastern New Mexico tonight and Wednesday.
A slug of sub-tropical moisture is forecast to work its way north into the state tonight into Wednesday and continue into Thursday. This, along with the approaching upper-level storm and Pacific cold front, will make for an interesting and active three days of weather starting tonight. Then we go into round two this weekend into the first of next week.
A few scattered rain showers may dot the landscape across southern, south-central, and southeastern New Mexico late tonight into Wednesday. This activity will increase in aerial coverage Wednesday night into Thursday, becoming more numerous and widespread. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
Storm total rainfall amounts across the southeastern plains will generally be around .25" except for locally heavy amounts with any thunderstorm. The Sac's will generally see .50" to 1.00" with locally heavy totals of 2" to 3" possible, especially with any thunderstorm.
Across the Sacramento mountains, rain showers will be on the increase this afternoon into tonight with a few isolated thunderstorms. Then, becoming more numerous and widespread from Wednesday into Thursday.
Snow levels are forecast to remain above 10,000' in the Sac's with heavy snow, even thunderstorm snow possible. Snow levels drop to around 8,000' on Thursday as the storm begins to move out of the area. The Cloudcroft and Sunspot areas may see an inch or two of accumulating snow by the time the storm ends Thursday. Snow levels across the rest of the states' mountainous areas will start out around 9,000' and lower going into Thursday.
Thursday may be breezy to windy in some areas of the state, as a Pacific cold front sweeps eastward across the state. High winds are possible in the Guadalupe Mountains. Round two comes this weekend with more lowland rain showers and mountain snows.
Check my weather web page often, as additional information and updated forecasts become available. Winter weather products are possible for parts of the state Wednesday into Thursday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
112 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
- A few isolated severe storms may occur Wednesday night, from
the Western Low Rolling Plains to the lower Trans Pecos. Large
hail will be the main threat.
- There is a potential for flash flooding in heavier
showers/storms across SE NM plains into Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.
- Strong winds over Guadalupe into Davis Mountains late Thursday
afternoon through early Friday afternoon may create difficult
driving conditions.
- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures for late week continuing
into next week.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
119 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025
- A moist Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled
weather tonight through Thursday night, with high chances for
mountain snow and valley rain.
- Accumulating snow will be favored above 9000 feet Wednesday
night through Thursday night.
- Another Pacific storm system may bring more precipitation to the
region this weekend and into early next week.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
133 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Rain is expected to develop across much of the area tonight,
becoming more showery Wednesday morning.
- Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in Southwestern
New Mexico Wednesday afternoon, with hail the main threat,
followed by damaging winds.
- Additional steadier rain will sweep across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday, with breezy and blustery conditions
Thursday afternoon.
- Snow levels will remain above 10,000 feet
for most of the event, falling as low as 8000 feet Thursday
morning as precip becomes more scattered.
- Another storm system will bring precip to the area over the
weekend, and may take a more southerly track that is more
favorable for high elevation snowfall.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
- Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to increase
Wednesday, primarily in the Rolling Plains.
- Marginally-severe hail will be possible in the eastern Rolling
Plains Wednesday.
- Locally heavy rain and some strong to severe storms are possible
Thursday.
- Cool finish to the week with additional rain chances this
weekend.
&&
Valid At 5 AM MST, Thursday, Nov 20, 2025.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern
Plains tomorrow (Wednesday) evening into early Thursday morning.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will meander across the Southwest tomorrow
(Wednesday), which will encourage modest lee troughing and
subsequent low-level moisture return across the southern Plains.
Cooler temperatures aloft, associated with the aforementioned
trough, will overspread portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin
to the Four Corners, fostering weak buoyancy amid strong deep-layer
ascent to support isolated thunderstorm development. Across the
southern Plains, weak upper support from the approaching trough to
the West, gradually overspreading a low-level moist axis, will
support the development of widely scattered thunderstorms,
especially Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A few of
these thunderstorms may be strong to potentially severe.
...Portions of the southern Plains...
During the late afternoon/early evening hours, a low-level warm-air
advection regime will become established across the southern Plains
by late afternoon. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect
north-northwestward as a 25-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet develops
across western into central TX. Upper support is expected to be
modest at best through at least the 00Z period, suggesting that
deep-moist convection should remain isolated through roughly the
first half of the period. However, increasing low-level convergence
with the strengthening low-level jet should support an increased
coverage of thunderstorms through the night across western into
central TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the moist
axis, resulting in over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs,
which may support a few multicellular or even transient supercell
structures. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of producing
severe hail.
..Squitieri.. 11/18/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2016Z (1:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
ECMWF 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Canadian (GEM) 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
NWS New Mexico & West Texas Rainfall Forecasts.
NWS New Mexico Snowfall Forecasts.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.