Most Of New Mexico To Receive Light To Moderate Rain Lowland Rain & Higher Mountain Snow.
Looking East From C-Hill.
Carlsbad, New Mexico Sunrise.
Here Comes The Rain & Snow.
Central Arizona and southern Nevada got clobbered with heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours, according to measured and radar-estimated totals. Widespread .50" to 1" totals were common with pockets of 2" to 3". Highly unusual for late November. This is more like a September pattern.
As of 7 AM MST this morning, the closed mid-upper level low responsible for this wet pattern was centered over southern California. It will track east into southeastern Arizona by around noontime tomorrow, then continue to open up and swing northeast into Colorado by midnight Thursday. By sunrise Thursday, a second closed mid-upper level low will be centered just west of Los Angeles. This storm is then forecast to slide southeast, then pivot across northwestern Mexico on Friday, and southern Arizona on Saturday into Sunday. By noontime on Sunday, it should be located somewhere close to El Paso as it begins to open up and move into the Texas Panhandle by sunrise on Monday.
Abundant mid-level sub-tropical moisture is being drawn up from the eastern Pacific into New Mexico, and this will continue into Thursday. A Pacific cold front will swing eastward across the state on Thursday. Low-level southeasterly upslope flow from the Gulf of America will continue to bring moisture from the Gulf into southeastern New Mexico and West Texas today into Thursday. The dryline will light up and become active near the New Mexico/Texas border this afternoon. A few multicelluar or isolated low-topped supercell thunderstorms may develop and produce localized severe thunderstorms with large hail being the main threat.
Scattered to numerous rain showers with embedded areas of steady rain will increase in coverage across the state today into Thursday. Wide-spread light to moderate lowland rainfall should break out with pockets of heavy rain state-wide. A few thunderstorms are possible, and some of these may be marginally severe over parts of southern and southeastern New Mexico today into early this evening.
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from 11 PM MST tonight through 5 AM MST Friday for the northern mountains. 3" to 7" of new snowfall above 8,500' is possible with up to 10" across the higher peaks.
Snow levels across western, northern, and central New Mexico will start out around 9,000' today, dropping down to around 6,500' by Thursday. Snow levels in the Sac's will be above 9,500' today but will drop down to around 7,000' by Thursday.
Whitewater Baldy in the Gila could pick up 12" to 18" of snowfall from this storm. 3" to 7" are forecast for the northern mountains, with the higher peaks getting perhaps 10". Ski Apache west of Ruidoso may pick up 6" to 8" of the white stuff by Thursday. Locally higher totals are possible in all of these areas.
Thursday afternoon still looks a little windy in some areas as the storm pulls off to the northeast and the front sweeps east across the state.
Friday will be a down day before the next storm approaches this weekend. More lowland rains and high mountain snows are expected.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 449 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 446 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Isolated severe storms this afternoon and evening across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with large hail being the main threat. - Strong winds over Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 An active weather pattern is among us following a very warm and dry 30 day period. An upper trough to our west will provide our next shot for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase today as the trough begins to move east. This flow regime will induce leeside surface troughing helping to draw deep Gulf moisture (dewpts >60F) west across the area. By late afternoon, an increasing low level jet along with modest upper level support should allow for isolated convection to develop, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. Hi- res models help support this idea with development generally after 4 PM CST. Steep mid level lapse rates along with modest deep layer shear will support isolated multicell/supercell structures with large hail being the main threat. The big question will be instability as we expect a rather extensive mid and upper cloud deck due to the deep fetch of moisture off the Pacific. While temperatures will remain above normal, we will cool several degrees from previous days due to the clouds. The chance of rain remains high (60%) into tonight as mid and upper level lift further increases with the approach of the upper trough. Another round of storms appears likely to develop after midnight across much of the area. While the severe threat lowers somewhat due to the loss of daytime heating, high PWATs (>1") and training storms could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding. Shower and thunderstorm chances peak (>80%) Thursday as the upper trough lifts and deamplifies over the region. Another round of storms is expected to develop and focus along an advancing Pacific front that will sweep across the area during the day. While moisture values remain high, storms will be fast-moving helping to limit the threat for flash flooding. Strong to severe storms are still possible Thursday, but weakening upper level support should help negate the threat. Expect high temperatures a few degrees cooler once again, especially across the higher terrain where the front will move through earlier in the day. Gusty west winds will follow the passage of the front with gusts >50 mph likely across the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon into the evening. Will continue to monitor for possible high wind products. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 The extended remains active as another storm system is set to affect the region later this weekend. Before that occurs, we are looking at a beautiful Friday as high pressure settles in helping to clear skies. With a Pacific airmass behind the front, high temperatures will still climb into the 60s and 70s for most locations outside of the mountains (50s). Attention quickly turns to the west to another upper trough diving south over Baja early Saturday. Southwesterly flow will increase overhead once again helping to draw Gulf moisture back west over the area. This system will arrive Sunday into Monday bringing our next best chance of widespread showers and storms. Many of the details still have to be ironed out with this system so more on it once we get trough this week`s storm. Temperatures will remain above normal through the duration of this forecast cycle as any really cold air stays well to our north. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 430 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 426 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 - A moist Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather through Thursday night, with high chances for mountain snow and valley rain. - Accumulating snow will be favored above 9000 feet Wednesday night through Thursday night, - Another Pacific storm system will bring more precipitation to the region late this weekend and into early Monday. There is a moderate chance (30-50%) that a Winter Weather Advisory will be required for the northern mountains late this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1206 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 A 555dam 500mb low is currently progressing east across SoCal, with a deep tap of Pacific moisture streaming over the region per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Moisture advection will continue into Thursday morning, with PWATS rising to near daily record high values as the upper low swings east across AZ. The result will be abundant cloud cover and increasing chances for valley rain and mountain snow through Thursday. Occasional lightning strikes can not be ruled out, especially on Thursday as the filling upper low moves over central NM. Soaking rains are expected for much of central and south central NM, with qpf amounts of 0.50-1.00". Southwest areas will see higher amounts due to stronger forcing as the upper low pivots toward the AZ/NM border Thursday morning. Snow levels will start off high, around 9kft or higher, but lower to around 8kft late Thursday. These high snow levels will limit impacts from snow accumulation mainly to the high terrain well above our population centers. The highest peaks of the southwest mountains (mainly just Whitewater Baldy) could pick up between 12-18" of snow, with 5-10" forecast across the higher terrain of the northern mountains. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday night through Thursday night for the northern mountains where higher mountain passes will be impacted, but refrain from issuing for the southwest mountains with no populations or infrastructure impacts expected. Temperatures will be notably colder on Thursday, with highs forecast to be 5-15 degrees below average across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 The upper low is forecast to eject northeast out of NM Thursday night as the another upper low dives southeast along the CA coast, following a similar track to the first system. Precipitation will slowly wind-down Thursday night across north central and northeast NM, but snow will continue to accumulate in the northern mountains. Expect a short-lived break from the active weather pattern Friday into Saturday as a shortwave ridge develops overhead and moves slowly east into the southern plains. Moisture advection will ramp back up Saturday into Saturday night as the upper low moves inland over the northern Baja Peninsula and then lifts northeast toward southern AZ. The 00Z medium range models solutions agree on a filling upper low impacting NM with another round of precipitation beginning Saturday night and ramping up Sunday, but differ on the exact placement and progression of the upper level feature. Snow levels will be high with this upper low as well and 500mb heights are forecast to be an unimpressive 562-565dam as the system moves over NM. So, more valley rain and high terrain snow, with a moderate chance (30-50%) of a Winter Weather Advisory being required for the northern mountains. Warming and drying is forecast early next week behind the departing upper low with moderate west-northwest flow aloft. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 441 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, focusing across southwest New Mexico. Some storms could be strong to severe. Localized flooding possible with rain totals one to two inches. - Widespread rain showers tonight into Thursday morning. Snow levels above 9,000 feet. New rain amounts 0.50-0.75 inches along the Rio Grande valley. - Next round of rain chances timed for Saturday night into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 943 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 The low pressure system that will bring the Borderland rain showers and high elevation mountain snow Wed/Thu is currently sitting over SoCal and will progress eastward. Models are suggesting pretty good areawide coverage for rain showers on Wednesday. Instability values are lackluster with values generally below 500 J/kg, but plenty of shear will be around (0-6km shear of 50-75kt). Overnight tonight and into the morning hours Wednesday we can expect rain showers but turns more convective as we head into the afternoon hours. The strongest storms should be isolated in nature but could see some low topped supercells bringing the threat of gusty outflow winds and hail. Moderate rainfall possible as well but thankfully the added shear will allow for these storms to move off an area quickly before causing any flooding issues. However, if storms begin back building over an area - that could become an issue. Snow levels will be quite high (above 9500`) on Wednesday but looks like snow levels start to crash late Wednesday/early Thursday which would bring some high elevation snow. Snow levels start at around 9000` Wednesday evening but drop to around 8000` in the Gila region. By late Thursday night snow levels get to around 7000` but much of the precipitation has moved out of the area. Current snow totals look light with totals anywhere from just a coating to an inch or two on the highest elevations of the Black Range. The Sacramento Mtns will see light totals as well (a coating to an inch or so possible). In addition to the snow, rain chances look to persist late Wednesday and into Thursday for much of the area. Similar environment expected Thursday to what we`ll see Wednesday where there`s plenty of shear to work with but not much instability, and instability values look just a bit less than Wednesday but similar hazards can be expected. The system looks to move out late Thursday which may keep some lingering light showers behind the system but Friday looks much quieter with light winds, dry conditions, and below normal temperatures. Our next system arrives late Saturday bringing precipitation chances by late evening Saturday. This second system looks to take a similar trajectory in the way it makes it`s way onshore over SoCal/northern Baja and progresses eastward over central NM. Another round of lowland rain showers and light mountain snowfall. Snow totals look even less impressive right now compared to the first system. Looking like a coating to an inch of snow is possible through the day Sunday and into Monday for the area mountains. The system looks to exit late Monday and early Tuesday bringing another break through the day Tuesday. &&
Valid At 5 AM MST, Thursday, Nov 20, 2025.
(At 7:40 AM MST, Wed, Nov 19, 2025).
(At 7 AM MST, Wed, Nov 19, 2025).
(Valid From 5 AM MST This Morning Through 5 PM MST Monday, Nov 24, 2025).
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the southern Plains into parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado may also occur. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks... A low-latitude mid/upper-level will move slowly eastward across the lower Colorado River Valley/Southwest and northwest Mexico today into tonight. Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and vicinity through the period, although height falls will generally not reach these locales until tonight. An increasingly moist low-level airmass across south/central Texas this morning will advance slowly northward in tandem with a surface warm front. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur this evening and overnight across west Texas as large-scale ascent preceding the slow-moving upper trough eventually overspreads the southern Plains. Nebulous forcing for much of the day casts significant uncertainty on convective development across the warm sector until later this evening and overnight. But it appears probable that thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage this evening into early Thursday morning across the southern Plains with the approach of the upper trough. Modest low-level warm advection in the vicinity of the warm front and a developing dryline across west Texas may also aid in convective development this evening. Most guidance continues to show moderate instability in place along/near these boundaries, with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present. This favorable thermodynamic environment, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear given the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, should promote organized updrafts. Current expectations are for a mix of supercells and multicells to develop and pose an isolated threat for mainly large hail. Where convection can remain surface-based this evening, some threat for occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two should also exist, although the coverage and likelihood is uncertain. With time, updraft interactions/mergers should result in a messy convective mode, especially with elevated thunderstorms to the north of the warm front. Still, at least some risk for severe hail may persist for much of the overnight/early Thursday morning period with this activity as it spreads east-northeastward across the southern Plains and parts of the Ozarks. Additional development should occur late tonight/early Thursday across eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas with hail possible. ...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... Cool mid-level temperatures will be in place over the Southwest as the upper trough progresses slowly eastward. Cooling aloft and cloud breaks will allow for modest diurnal destabilization coincident with strong deep-layer wind profiles. A few strong to locally severe storms could occur with gusty winds and some hail. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 11/19/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1642Z (9:42AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
(As Of 7 AM MST, Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025).
Regional MesoWest 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As Of 8:30 AM MST, Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025).
New Mexico 3-Day Storm Total Rainfall Forecasts.
New Mexico 3-Day Storm Total Snowfall Forecasts.
(Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Monday, Nov 24, 2025).
National Blend Of Models Storm Total \Rainfall Forecast.
(Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Monday, Nov 24, 2025).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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