A Pattern Change May Mean More Fall-Like Weather Around The 15th.
Alamo Peak South Of Cloudcroft, NM.
The last couple of days have been abnormally warm across New Mexico, with some new daily record high temperatures tied or broken. This trend will continue today and Thursday before a couple of cold fronts show up to knock our daily temps back down closer to seasonal normals Friday and Saturday.
Everyone in southeastern New Mexico experienced their first freeze of the season back on October 29th and 30th, except for the Carlsbad, Loving, and Malaga areas. A few Personal Weather Stations (PWS) did drop down to 32 or below in north Carlsbad and in the Otis area. But the official temperature at the Carlsbad Airport ASOS only dropped to 34 on the 30th. I recorded 33 here at our home in northwest Carlabd.
A backdoor cold front should cool us down enough Sunday night into Monday morning for us to see a freeze across the Pecos Valley, including the Carlsbad area.
A pattern change may bring more fall-like weather to the state and area late next week and beyond as the jet stream sends more storms into the Rockies and Southwest. All three of the long-range forecast models are picking up on this upcoming change, but hardly agree on the unfolding upper air pattern. Any model run beyond a week is almost useless as far as specific details or forecasts are concerned, but what I am looking at is a shift in the long-range upper air flow/pattern, thus a more active subtropical and polar jet stream.
The ECMWF and GEM forecast models are trying to bring rain, snow, and colder temperatures back into the state and surrounding areas around the 15th. The GFS wants no part of this. Use the embedded graphics and maps I've posted below as a general guide to depict some of our possible upcoming changes. We are still way too far out in time for these maps and graphics to be anywhere near accurate.
Nothing lasts forever in the weather world unless you live in the tropics, so by the middle of the month, our weather will be more fall-like or winter-like. Sorry, but 90-degree temps are ridiculous in November as far as I'm concerned.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 138 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025 - Near record warmth is expected today. Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will persist through the latter part of the week. - A strong cold front is forecast to bring increased northeasterly winds and much cooler temperatures to the area late this weekend. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1216 PM MST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1054 AM MST Wed Nov 5 2025 - High temperatures will climb around 5 to 15 degrees above average Thursday as west winds gust in the 25 to 40 mph range along the central mountain chain and eastward in the vicinity of the I-40 corridor. - Wind speeds will weaken and temperatures will trend cooler Friday through the weekend. An exception will be gusty northeast winds that may reach up to 35 mph on the eastern plains behind a backdoor cold front on Saturday. - Temperatures will trend upward again as a high pressure system builds over New Mexico early in the coming work week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1016 AM MST Wed Nov 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1014 AM MST Wed Nov 5 2025 - Near record warmth this week with lowland highs near 80. Dry weather and mostly light winds. - Cold front arrives next weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty east winds for Sunday. &&
Valid At 5 AM MST Friday, November 7, 2025.
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Local NWS Forecasts & Outlooks.
Thursday.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
Monday.
Thursday.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
Monday.
National Blend Of Models Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, November 15, 2025.
National Blend Of Models Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, November 15, 2025.
ECMWF Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, November 15, 2025.
ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, November 15, 2025.
November 1 - 3, 2025.
(Note the records for Nov 4th aren't available yet).
Preliminary New Record Daily Highs Tuesday.
It's early yet, but the automated weather station located at New Mexico State University Agriculture Science Center (SEBS), 6 miles south-southeast of Artesia, has already reached 91 for an afternoon high. This would break the previous daily record high for Artesia of 90 set way back in 1916.
However, this Wednesday morning, the NWS Climate Co-Op Station at the same location (SEBS) reported a high of only 89, so the old record of 90 set in 1916 still stands.
So far (as of 2:50 PM MST), the Carlsbad Airport ASOS has reached 88, which is one degree shy of its record high of 89 set in 1988. And two degrees shy of the Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Station's high of 90 set back in 1916.
The West Texas Mesonet Station, located 6 miles west of Whites City, or near the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center, has reached 82 so far. This would tie the Nov 4th record high at the Caverns set back in 2008 by the NWS Climate Co-Op Station.
The Hobbs Airport AWOS has reached 86 so far today, breaking the previous daily record high at Hobbs of 83 set in 1949.
The West Texas Mesonet Station in Tatum has reached 84 so far today, tying their record high for the date of 84 set in 1989.
The Roswell Airport ASOS reported 85, and their record high for the date is 87, set in 2020.
The Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS has reached 72 so far today, tying their record high for the date of 72 in 2023.
The Alamogordo Airport AWOS has reached 81 so far today, which breaks its previous record of 79 set in 2020. The Alamogordo NWS Climate Co-Op Station recorded a high of 83 in 1988.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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