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Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Severe Thunderstorms Today!

Severe T-Storms Today!

Note: The Cannon AFB Radar remains out of service. At this time it is unknown when it will be back up. The Lubbock and Amarillo NWS Radars do cover parts of Northeastern and Eastern New Mexico.

Overnight, the dryline backed westward into southeastern New Mexico. It is now located along the east slopes of the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe Mountains. Dew point temperatures across the local area are near 60 degrees at sunrise this morning. It will mix slightly eastward by this afternoon, but is forecast to remain across southeastern New Mexico.

With the approach of the mid-upper level trough of low pressure to our west. the winds aloft are turning more southwesterly. With a low-level southeasterly moist upslope flow in place along and east of the dryline, and southwesterly winds aloft, a good setup for a few discrete rotating supercell thunderstorms will exists over the area today.

A few discrete rotating supercell thunderstorms are forecast to fire up along the east slopes of the mountains today, and then move eastward into southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. Surface based cape values are forecast to be in the 1000-1500 j/kg range, along with bulk wind shear values of 30-40 knots, steep mid-level lapse rates of 8c/km, and the dryline will be sharpening up this afternoon.

Therefore, the best setup for severe thunderstorms across southeastern New Mexico in two years appears to be shaping up today. Large hail, perhaps golf ball size or larger, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, will be possible today into this evening with the stronger discrete rotating supercell thunderstorms. There will be enough directional and speed shear in place for the possibility of an isolated tornado or two across the area as well.

Localized heavy rainfall will fall with the heavier storms. Localized rainfall totals of an inch or more will be possible. This may produce localized flash flooding, especially across the burn scar areas. Never drive through a flooded normally dry arroyo. The road underneath may be washed out and there is no way to tell how deep the water is. Please Remember Turn Around...Don't Down!

Please remember that if you are close enough to the thunderstorm to hear the thunder, then you are close enough to be struck by the lightning. When thunder roars...go indoors.

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