Important Update at 10:30 AM MDT-
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has just updated its Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook for southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. They have extended the Slight Risk Area for Severe Thunderstorms further to the northwest and into southeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. There now appears to be an increased threat for severe thunderstorms across southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas this afternoon and evening.
The main severe weather threats still appear to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, along with frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning. A few supercell thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. These supercell thunderstorms will be capable of producing a few isolated tornadoes across parts of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas!There now appears to be the potential for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, or perhaps even a Tornado Watch being issued for southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas this afternoon and evening.
This means that the potential for Skywarn Spotter Activation for the Midland, Texas National Weather Service County Warning Area may be increasing. I may call for Spotter Activation later today.
Locally heavy rainfall may produce localized areas of flash flooding this afternoon in evening. This will be especially true over and near the recent burn scar areas from last years fires. The flash flood potential across southeastern New Mexico has significantly elevated due to these burn scar areas, and the ongoing two-year historic drought we have been enduring. These areas will flood much more quickly than normal, and could pose a significant risk to life and property should a slow moving thunderstorm, or a series of thunderstorms dump heavy rainfall over a short period of time, which is a possibility.
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