Triple Digit Temps Return - Cold Front This Weekend Brings With It A Chance For Rain.

- Wednesday, May 16, 2018

July 30, 2013.

Taken In Otis - Southeast Of Carlsbad, NM.

Hopefully This Will Become A More Common Scene Soon.

Changes Coming This Weekend.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018.

GFS High Temperature Forecast Sunday..

GFS Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018.

ECMWF Forecast High Temperature Sunday.

ECMWF Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018.

WPC 7-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Wednesday, May 23, 2018.

NWS NDFD High Temperature Forecasts..

Today.

Thursday.

Friday.

Saturday.

Sunday.

NWS NDFD High Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Sunday.

Cold Front Brings Hope Of Rain This Weekend.

Latest computer model trends continue to want to drag a surface cold front south into the local area Saturday night and Sunday morning. Meanwhile they also develop a short wave trough of low pressure over the Desert Southwest on Saturday. The dryline is also forecast by the models to back westward to the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains Saturday night. It appears that Southeastern New Mexico may also be the focal point for a surface triple point axis.

Last nights run of the European (ECMWF) was the most energetic with the cooling behind the cold front dropping our highs on Sunday down into the 70's and 80's locally. This model also was a little more aggressive and widespread with the possibility of decent rainfall.

Until then we are still looking at triple digit temperatures today, tomorrow, and maybe Friday.

So if current model trends and forecasts continue on this track it appears that we may actually see a decent chance for thunderstorms this weekend. Naturally any that would manage to form would have the potential to become severe given that we have entered our severe weather season. Typically our spring severe weather season here in Southeastern New Mexico runs from about mid April through June.