Incoming Winter Storm Shifting South - Welcome To The First Day Of The Meteorological Spring.

February 26, 2023
Roswell, New Mexico.


At 9:21 AM MST Wednesday Morning.


Valid At 11 PM MST Wednesday Night.

Blog Updated At 12:39 PM MST Wednesday.

Incoming Winter Storm Shifting South.
 Welcome To The First Day Of The Meteorological Spring.

Welcome to spring, or at least the beginning of the meteorological spring. With that important changes have occured since yesterday that will affect our weather in New Mexico and West Texas. Our spring is coming in like a lion for sure this year. I have my doubts though that it will leave like a lamb.

This morning a cold and powerful mid/upper-level low was centered over southern California and is forecast to track to the southeast today into Thursday. By sunrise Thursday morning it is forecast to be centered over southeastern Arizona. By sunset Thursday it is forecast to be exiting to the east out of far southeastern New Mexico.

Western New Mexico will begin to feel it's impacts tonight as widespread snows develop and move east across the state on Thursday. As with the last couple of storms snow squalls will be possible along the approaching strong Pacific cold front tonight into Thursday over western, northern, and central New Mexico.

Strong winds will pick up today into tonight ahead of the approaching winter storm. Wind Advisories are out for much of the state for southwest winds becoming sustained at around 30 - 40 mph with gusts near 50 - 60 mph. This includes Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Culberson, Lincoln, Otero Counties, and much of southern New Mexico.

Areas of blowing dust are expected today into tonight. Watch out for those sudden drops in the visibility down to zero with little to no advanced warning in our normally dust prone locations such as freshly plowed, cultivated, exposed or open farmlands and fields, lots, and highway construction sites (oil field areas).

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the southwestern, western, and northern mountains today through Thursday. New snowfall amounts of 6" to12" are possible across the Chuska and Tusca mountains with 18" above 9,000'. The Jemez and southwest mountains could see 3" to 9" with 10" to 14" above 9,000'. Portions of the Gila mountains may see 6" to 10". Blowing snow is also expected and may cause travel issues in these areas tonight into Thursday.

The Northwest Plateau, Upper Rio Grande Valley, and Espanola Valley are expecting to see 1" to 3" of snow with 4" to 6" above 7,500. 

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the southern Sacramento mountains from 6 PM MST this evening through Noon MST Thursday. New snowfall totals of 3" to 6" are forecast. Ski Apache may pick up another 6" to 12" from this storm. Blowing snow is also expected in the mountains and may cause travel issues in these areas tonight into Thursday. The southwestern Bootheel area is forecast to pick up to 2" of snow.

Snow may also occur over the northeastern and eastern plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Current forecasts indicate and inch or two is possible over the northeastern plains with less than an inch expected over the eastern plains. However given the changing forecast trajectory of this storm there is the possibility of changes in some of our forecasts so please keep abreast of the latest forecasts, watches, and warnings. 

Thursday's Watches & Warnings.

For the northern Sacramento Mountains: A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon today through 8 PM MST this evening. Southwest winds will become sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph.  

A High Wind Watch is in effect from this evening through Thursday evening. West winds will become sustained at 30-40 mph with gusts near 60 mph.Power outages are possible. Brief periods of blowing snow may create reduced visibility which may affect travel through the mountains tonight through Thursday. 
Blowing dust may also reduce the visibility and affect travel through the mountains.

For the southern Sacramento Mountains: A Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight tonight. Southwest winds sustained at 30-40 mph with gusts near 55 mph today into midnight tonight are expected.

A High Wind Warning will be in effect from Midnight tonight through 8 PM MST Thursday evening. West winds sustained at 35-45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph are expected. Wind damage may occur to power lines, trees, sheds, barns, and homes. Power outages are possible.

The Chaves County Plains: A High Wind Watch is in effect from this evening through Thursday evening. West winds will become sustained at 30-40 mph with gusts near 60 mphBlowing dust will also reduce the visibility and affect travel. Power outages are possible.

Eddy and Lea Counties:  A Wind Advisory remains in effect today through this evening. Southwest winds will become sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph. 

A High Wind Watch remains in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening. West winds will become sustained at 40-50 mph with gusts near 75-80 mph! Damages from these winds may occur along with power outages.

Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy/Culberson Counties:  A High Wind Warning remains in effect through 11 PM MST Thursday night. West winds sustained at 45-65 mph with gusts near 95-100 mph! Damages from these winds may occur along with power outages. Blowing dust will reduce the visibility and may cause travel issues.

High winds across parts of the state (especially the southern and southeastern areas) later tonight and Thursday may down trees, power lines, and power poles which may cause power outages in some locations. Other utility and cable lines may also be downed. Wind damage to homes, roofs, shingles, fences, sheds, barns, and other outbuildings are possible in many areas. Agricultural irrigation sprinkler systems may be blown away. Some west facing windows could blow out in gusts above 70 mph. Vehicles on north/south oriented highways may be blown over or blown off roads and highways. Especially high profile vehicles such as semi trucks, and camper trailers, school buses, and vans.

Widespread blowing dust is expected over much of the lower elevations of the southern and eastern half of of the state Thursday into Thursday evening.

Some areas could see the visibility drop down to 1/2 of a mile. Dust prone locations such as freshly plowed, cultivated, exposed or open farmlands and fields, lots, and highway construction sites (oil field areas) will experience sudden drops in the visibility down to zero with little to no advanced warning. Travel upon the states highways and roadways in these areas will be dangerous if not impossible in some locations at times.

Life threatening conditions may exist due to the brownout conditions. Remember that southeastern New Mexico has a long history of multivehicle accidents with fatalities and injuries during these blinding dust storms.

Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches have been issued for today and Thursday. Although not likely any wildfire (pray they don't) that could possibly develop (from downed power lines and other sources) could potentially add to the dangerous travel conditions especially if they break out near highways or roadways. Dense smoke could combine with the blowing dust to add to the hazardous conditions. 



At 5 AM MST This Wednesday Morning.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday Morning.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday Afternoon.








Valid Today Through 5 AM MST Friday.




There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Comments

Current NWS National Watches/Warnings In Effect

Current NWS National Watches/Warnings In Effect
Click On The Map For The Latest Updates

New Mexico

Current Watches In Effect

SPC Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 Outlook

NWS Regional Radar

NWS Regional Radar

NWS Midland Radar

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Radar

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso Radar

NWS Lubbock Radar

GOES-East - Sector view: Southern Rockies - GEOColor

Current US Temps

Current US Wind Chill/Heat Index Temperatures

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast.

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

24-Hour Minimum Wind Chill Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall