Monsoonal T-Storms This Weekend Into The Middle Of Next Week.
Dirt Road To Nowhere.
Northwest Of Carlsbad, NM.
Updated At 1:55 PM MDT Saturday, August 16, 2025.
Monsoonal T-Storms Continue.
We are halfway through August, and gradually, we are losing daylight. By the end of the month, most of New Mexico will have lost about an hour of daylight. Most of the state will have cooled off roughly a degree or two by the end of the month when considering average daily high/low temperatures. Our meteorological fall begins September 1st, and I don't know about you, but I'm ready. Fall is my favorite time of the year in New Mexico.
From mid-August through the first of October, on average, is when most of us see our wettest time of the year...some in the state start in July. This is prime season for flash flooding, too. Many of the state's worst flash flood events occur during this time frame. Thankfully, the remnant tropical moisture from tropical disturbance AL98 I talked about in yesterday's blog, located off the Brownsville, Texas coast, will not be a major player in our weather this weekend or next week. It wrung itself out over the Gulf and died.
But this is the time of the year when remnant tropical moisture from tropical waves, tropical storms, and hurricanes gets pulled northward up the Rio Grande from the Gulf and northeastward from the eastern Pacific into the region. Combine this with the occasional cold front moving into the state, and you have the setup for heavy rains and flash flooding.
Our typical on-again and off-again summer monsoon rules our weather through next week. By the middle of next week, most model forecasts call for a period of drying out and warming up. So the pattern of back and forth continues.
A Flood Watch remains in effect for Lincoln County through this evening, primarily for the burn scars in the Ruidoso area. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall that will lead to flash flooding within the watch area into this evening.
Eleshwere scattered t-storms will dot the afternoon and evening landscape across western, southern, and the eastern one-half of the state this weekend. A few thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding in a few isolated areas. Over rainfall totals should average below an inch for most of us through Monday. A few of the stronger thunderstorms may produce isolated rainfall totals by Monday in the 1" to 3" range.
A few severe t-storms will be possible on Monday in northeastern New Mexico.
177 WGUS65 KABQ 161700 FFAABQ URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1100 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 NMZ226-170300- /O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0041.250817T1700Z-250818T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ /O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0040.250816T1800Z-250817T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ South Central Mountains- 1100 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Another round of thunderstorm activity on Sunday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding over recent wildfire burn scars. Burn scars around Ruidoso are very vulnerable to flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/abq/EmergencyPrepFlood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. * WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Thunderstorm activity caused by a surge of monsoon moisture over the region resulting in heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding over recent wildfire burn scars. Burn scars around Ruidoso are very vulnerable to flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/abq/EmergencyPrepFlood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Shoemake
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1142 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - This weekend, warm and humid weather with low to medium (20-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over western higher terrain and surrounding foothills and plains are expected. - Near normal temperatures early next week, becoming slightly below normal by the middle and end of the week. - There is a daily low to medium (20-60%) chance of thunderstorms for much of the area, with the highest chances over western portions of the area early in the week, shifting eastward later in the week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 611 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 611 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - High flash flood threat below recent burn scars each day this weekend into early next week. Flood Watch for the northern Sacramento Mountains including Ruidoso for this afternoon and early evening. - Monsoon moisture will support locally heavy rainfall in a few of the stronger storms the next few days with isolated flash flooding possible daily through Tuesday. The greatest coverage of storms through Monday will be across southern areas and also northward along the central mountain chain. - Strong to severe storms expected over northeast areas Monday. - Decreasing storm coverage and rainfall intensity are now forecast Wednesday through Friday, when high temperatures will climb with areas of moderate heat risk developing at lower elevations west of the central mountain chain. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1055 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Deeper monsoon moisture on southerly winds will persist through Monday, with scattered showers/thunderstorms and local flooding. - Moisture will diminish Tuesday through Thursday back to near normal levels, allowing isolated thunderstorms to continue for much of the area. - Even drier air expected for next Friday and Saturday, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. Temperatures warming to back above normal. &&
Category 5 Hurricane Erin has sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts near 195 mph at 9:20 AM MDT this Saturday morning. Her central pressure continues to drop and is down to 917 millibars of 27.08" of mercury. She continues tracking off to the west at 17 mph.
(At 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 16, 2025.).
GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.
(At 6 AM MDT Tuesday, August 19, 2025.).
(Today Through 6 AM MDT Tuesday).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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