Big Changes Coming Next Week - First Fall-like Cold Front Coming South.

- August 22, 2025

August 17, 2025.

Rainy Day In The Sac's.

Clouds Topping Mtn's East Of Cloudcroft.

Update At 11:21 AM MDT Friday.

A Flood Watch is now in effect for the Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northeast Highlands- FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY

EVENING...

With high pressure aloft centered over the Four Corners Region this morning, a slightly drier airmass has settled in over parts of the state, including southeastern New Mexico. This has allowed our overnight low temps to drop a little closer to seasonal norms. The Angel Fire Airport recorded a low this morning of 33. Most of the rest of the state reported overnight lows in the 50's and 60's with a few 70-degree readings.

With high pressure dominating our weather today into the weekend, rain showers and t-storm activity will be confined to the western and northern one-third of the state.

Big changes are on their way, starting late this weekend across northern and northeastern New Mexico. An unusually deep and cold upper-level low is forecast to dive southeast from central Canada into the Great Lakes Region this weekend. A strong shortwave trough of low pressure associated with this storm will send an early fall-like cold front south down the plains and into northeastern New Mexico by Monday.

This front will backdoor slowly southward and southwestward down the eastern plains and into southeastern New Mexico by the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. A much cooler airmass will accompany the frontal passage.

Highs on Monday in northeastern and eastern New Mexico are forecast to be in the low 80's to low 90's, and the low-mid 90's in central, southern, and southeastern sections of the state.

Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be a few degrees cooler in most areas. By Wednesday, as cooler air overspreads the state, highs are forecast to be mostly in the 70's and 80's with 60's at the higher elevations.

Rich monsoonal moisture will once again surge northward into the state early next week. This, in combination with the strong frontal passage and upper-level disturbances zipping overhead, will all combine to produce impressive rainfall totals across much of the state next week.

By next Friday the many areas may end up with weekly rainfall totals in the 2" to 5" range across northern and northeastern New Mexico. Western and central New Mexico, perhaps 1" to 2". Southeastern New Mexico .25" to 1".

Burn scar flash flooding will once again be a problem in northern New Mexico this weekend (HPCC areas) and over the Ruidoso burn scars starting next Tuesday. Outside of these areas, localized flash flooding may also occur in those areas that receive locally heavy downpours in short periods of time.

But given that this event is 4-5 days out, don't carve these rainfall totals into stone just yet. This is a first look at what is coming, and no doubt this is subject to change. Temperatures could be cooler or warmer in some areas than what is currently being forecast by the various models.

How far south the front makes it, and how fast, how much monsoonal and low-level moisture is pulled into the state behind the front and from Mexico, and how unstable the atmosphere is next week, all will play a role in who gets wet, really wet, and not so wet. This has been the pattern of late, and it will continue as we close out the upcoming last week of the meteorological summer.

This does not mean that summer is over, but fall is knocking on its front door. Enjoy the rain and cooler temps next week.

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WGUS65 KABQ 221642
FFAABQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1042 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

NMZ214-215-229-230500-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0043.250823T1800Z-250824T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Northeast Highlands-
1042 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de
  Cristo Mountains and Northeast Highlands. This includes the
  Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon burn scar.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Higher available moisture behind a backdoor front along with
    a weak disturbance aloft will result in a greater coverage of
    showers and thunderstorms across the Sangre de Cristo
    Mountains Saturday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 1
    to 2 inches per hour could result in
    flash flooding over the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon burn
    scar.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&& $$ 
MA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus
  across the far northern and western high terrain today where
  strong outflow winds and brief rain are possible.

- Moderate heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and
  western NM today with major heat risk possible across the Four
  Corners region.

- A pattern change toward wetter and cooler conditions is becoming
  more likely for northern NM Saturday through Monday, expanding
  to the entire forecast area Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Temperatures will remain near normal today and Saturday. Isolated
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms (10-15 percent chance) may
  develop across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos region, Marfa
  Plateau, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend region today.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return with rain probabilities
  increasing to a low to medium (25% to 45%) chance Tuesday into
  the end of the week.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
556 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-  Much drier air in place this weekend, with only slight storm
   chances across the Gila Wilderness. Rain chances returning next
   week.

-  Typical late August temperatures and light winds. Lowland highs
   in the mid to upper nineties.

&&