Return Of The Monsoon Means More T-Storms & Flash Flooding!
Looking Southeast From Hobbs.
Dissipating T-Storm With Cumulonimbus Mammatus (CBMAM) Clouds.
The Rain Is Back.
Another surge of monsoonal moisture northward out of Mexico is underway this morning. This will continue at least into the middle of next week. Increasing clouds, widely scattered to scattered showers and t-storms, and slightly cooler temps will be focused from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward today. Scattered to numerous showers and t-storms will overspread more of the state this weekend into the first of next week.
As has been the case all summer, once again the threat for brun scar flash flooding will be high today into next Tuesday. This includes the Hermit Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar in northern New Mexico and the Ruidoso burn scar complex.
Isolated and localized flash flooding will be possible elsewhere across the state whenever and wherever t-storms produce locally heavy rains in a short period of time.
There is a fly in the ointment this morning, and that is tropical disturbance AL98 located just southeast of Brownsville, Texas, in the Gulf of America. There is a chance that it could strengthen into a tropical depression before it makes landfall later today.
Remnant tropical moisture from this disturbance is then forecast to move to the northwest. The Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast model brings this moisture into West Texas and southeastern New Mexico by around Monday or so. The other models have varying tracks of this remnant tropical moisture; they, too, bring it basically northwestward.
Forecast models usually do not handle these tropical moisture surges into the area very well. More often than not, they underforecast the rainfall amounts these systems produce. I don't think that they are picking up on this moisture in this morning's runs either.
At the very least, this rich moisture field coming northwest from the Gulf of America may help enhance the monsoonal flow coming out of Mexico. Just exactly what impact it will have on our local area is up in the air this morning. I suspect, though, that by the first of next week, we could see a lot more rainfall in the areas than the models are currently forecasting if and when this remnant moisture from this tropical disturbance (AL98) moves over us.
What impact will this have on the burn scars in the Ruidoso area? If that rich tropical moisture field makes it to the Sacramento mountains, then it would enhance rainfall chances and coverage and could potentially aggravate the already bad flash flood situation there. Basically, the threat of flash flooding would go up (it's already high), so this won't be good news for them. If this happens. I will know more in a day or so and will update accordingly.
Please do not misunderstand me. I in no way am trying to cause panic or fear. Nor am I saying at this time that Ruidoso is looking at a repeat of the "Dolly flash flood event". However, the potential threat is there, even though it appears to be a slight threat this Friday morning. And I consider it irresponsible not to mention it. Should this tropical moisture stay east of the Ruidoso area, then that would be very good news. If not, then they may have a potentially very dangerous flash flood event on their hands.
If this remnant tropical moisture moves into southeastern and southern New Mexico, as well as parts of West Texas, then the threat for flash flooding could increase as well.
A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of Lincoln County (Ruidoso area) through 9 PM MDT this evening, and again for Saturday into Saturday evening.
On July 26th-28th, 2008, the remnant tropical moisture from former Category 1 Hurricane Dolly moved up the Rio Grande Valley and into southern New Mexico. The end result was devastating flash flooding in the Ruidoso area. Note: There were not as many burn scars in the Ruidoso area then as there are now. See my full blog post on that event via the link below.
"At the end of July 2008, Hurricane Dolly moved inland near Brownsville, Texas as a Category 1 Hurricane. Her remnant moisture then moved northwestward up the Rio Grande Valley and into southern New Mexico. During the night of Saturday, July 26th, into the following day, excessive rainfall fell over the Sacramento Mountains and the Sierra Blanca Wilderness drainage area west of Ruidoso, New Mexico.
Excerpts From My Blog July 27, 2008-
"As a result, some of the worst flooding in 100 years occurred in Ruidoso, New Mexico, late Saturday night into Sunday. The Rio Ruidoso River rose to over 11 feet in Ruidoso, and the Mescalero Lake at the Inn of the Mountain Gods rose to within a foot of the spillway. Bonito Lake was overflowing its spillway.
Many roads in the Ruidoso area were closed, including US 70 Saturday and Sunday. Twelve bridges were washed out, with some estimates of 20-25 bridges having gone underwater. Some 350-500 homes have been flooded and damaged, at least 25 people have been rescued out of the flood waters. Nearly 900 people stranded by the flood waters had been rescued in and around the Ruidoso area. One 20-year-old man who slipped in the flood waters in the upper canyon and drowned was found Monday morning.
200 residents remained stranded in the upper canyon area in west Ruidoso as of Monday due to the bridges and roads being washed out.
US 70 was reopened, but 60% of the secondary roads in and around Ruidoso remained closed on Monday. Early estimates put the damages in Ruidoso alone at 15-20 million dollars."
Former hurricane Dolly brought tropical moisture into New Mexico, producing heavy precipitation as high as 7 inches around Ruidoso. This rain caused the Rio Ruidoso and Rio Bonito to rise well above flood level, and widespread, serious flooding occurred from the upper canyon of the Rio Ruidoso downstream through the towns of Ruidoso, Hollywood, and Ruidoso Downs as far east as Fox Caves.
Flooding also occurred along the Rio Bonito from the dam at Bonito Lake downstream to State Road 48. The flooding was extensive in Ruidoso, not only along the Rio Ruidoso, Cedar Creek, and other small streams, but also throughout the town. Local rain reports were 6.3 to 7.0 inches.
One man was killed when he was swept away by the raging Rio Ruidoso; no substantial injuries were reported. A total of 500 structures, including campers and mobile homes, were damaged. Around 200 houses were damaged, and some were completely destroyed. At least 13 bridges were washed out, and several cars were washed downstream. Several dozen recreational vehicles and campers were damaged at an RV park at Ruidoso Downs. Damages in Lincoln County alone were estimated to be $25 million.
The remnants of Hurricane Dolly also impacted areas in south-central New Mexico as the circulation associated with the system moved directly over El Paso, TX, then curved north and northeastward into Otero County. Moisture from this system spread over most of southern New Mexico and lingered another 36 hours. Storm totals from early July 26 into the 27th peaked at more than 4 inches in the Santa Teresa Country Club area, with 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain to southern Dona Ana County. Water was knee deep in Chaparral, and Highway 28 was flooded south of La Union."
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 954 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 .Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over the northern Sacramento Mountains including the Ruidoso area. Flash flooding could quickly develop especially over the burn scar areas of the South Fork fire near Ruidoso each this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. NMZ226-160300- /O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0039.250815T1800Z-250816T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ /O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0040.250816T1800Z-250817T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ South Central Mountains- 954 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. * WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Thunderstorm activity caused by a surge of monsoon moisture over the region resulting in heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Thunderstorm activity caused by a surge of monsoon moisture over the region resulting in heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Overpeck
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 622 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Slightly above normal temperatures and a low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms for areas west of the Pecos River continue today into Saturday. Thunderstorms may become strong with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Near normal temperatures throughout next week. There is a daily low to medium (20-60%) chance of thunderstorms for most of the area, with the highest chance routinely near the higher elevations. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 555 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Moderate to high flash flood threat below recent burn scars today, then high each day this weekend into early next week. - Rich monsoon moisture will increase the risk of locally heavy rainfall at least isolated flash flooding daily today through the middle of the coming work week. The main focus for showers and thunderstorms today will be from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will then spread to more of the forecast area this weekend, then return daily to much of the forecast area through Wednesday. Decreasing storm coverage and rainfall intensity are expected during the latter half of the coming week.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 508 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 448 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Deeper monsoon moisture returns Friday through Monday, generally supporting increased thunderstorm chances and the chance for localized flash flooding, though daily storm chances will vary. - We will see a slow drying trend as we move through next week. - High temperatures this weekend into Monday will run a few degrees below average. Then creep a little above average toward the end of next week as we begin to dry out. &&
(Today Through Monday, August 18, 2025).
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast.
(Valid Today Through Next Wednesday).
(August 1st - August 15th, 2025).
(August 1st - August 15th, 2025).
(January 1st - August 15th, 2025).
(August 6, 2025).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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