Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Moisture Increasing - Scattered T-Storms Will Too.

Blog updated at 4:03 PM MDT.
Blog updated at 3:14 PM MDT.
Blog updated at 11:38 AM MDT.

Monsoonal moisture is seen streaming northward into NM
from Mexico compliments of the Monsoon. The grey
shaded areas indicate this moisture feed.

NWS HPC 5-Day Rainfall Forecast.

GRLevel3 2.0 Midland NWS Radar Snapshot At 2:58 PM.

A cluster of very slow moving thunderstorms stretches south-southwest from Carlsbad to the NM/TX State line at 3 PM MDT. This cluster of storms is generally moving northward at around 10 mph. Other thunderstorms dot the area mainly west of the Pecos River. Some of the heavier rainfall totals as of 3:30 PM MDT are listed below.

Lazy Day Cabins - Mayhill .66"
Cow Mountain IRaws 14 .42"
Sierra Blanca Snotel .30"
Mayhill CW9878 .21"
Queen Raws .19"
Dark Canyon Draw Raws .18"
Cedar Creek - Ruidoso .14"
IRaws 13 Lift-6 .13"
Smokey Bear Raws - Ruidoso .13"
Dry Canyon - East of Cloudcroft .12"
Mayhill Raws .09"
IRaws 15 Skyline .08"
Carlsbad Airport .07"
Mescal Raws .06"
Mid-Town Ruidoso .06"
Sacramento Peak Raws .01"
Northwest side of Carlsbad Trace

Rainfall Totals Are Courtesy Of-

MesoWest Weather
Weather Underground


I have good news...and bad news this morning. The good news is that our chances for getting wet are getting a little better with time. The bad news is that this rain is going to cause some problems...mainly  in the form of flash flooding over and below the burn scar areas.

Low and mid level moisture is increasing across the area as an inverted trough in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere continues moving westward over northern Mexico. The upper level high pressure that is centered over northern New Mexico will shift eastward in time, which will allow the subtropical moisture feed streaming northward into the state form Mexico to continue. Alas, the summer monsoon.

Southern New Mexico along with the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains are still favored to have the best shot at getting wet today into the end of this week. Thursday appears to be the wettest day for now. Most of the mountainous communities have a 20% - 50% chance of receiving measurable rainfall today into Friday. 

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop each afternoon this week. Some of these will produce heavy rain with rainfall rates of over an inch per hour possible. This will very quickly produce flash flooding over and below the burn scar areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Lincoln County effective from noon today into tomorrow evening. 

Here in the southeastern plains we are expected to remain on the eastern edge of the monsoonal surge moving northward out of Mexico. However, a few scattered thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon as well as tomorrow afternoon. Some of our local 4th of July activities may be in jeopardy of being rained upon tomorrow evening. We generally have around a 20% chance of getting wet tomorrow into Thursday. 

Our high temperatures across the southeastern plains are still forecast to remain in the low-mid 90's today into Friday. Ruidoso will see their afternoon highs range from the upper 70's to the low 80's. This sure beats the upper 80's to low 90's that they have recently been experiencing. Cloudcroft will see their high temperatures range from the low-upper 70's. This will be a welcome relief from the low-mid 80's they have been experiencing recently.

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