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Widespread Heavy Rain - Flash Flooding Possible!

Blog updated at 8:15 PM MDT.
Blog updated at 4:05 PM MDT.
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Valid From 6 AM MDT This Morning - 6 AM MDT Thursday Morning.
Widespread 3" Totals Guadalupe-Sacramento-Capitan Mtn's.
Widespread 1" - 2" Totals Across SE NM. 

A cold front was located over eastern New Mexico this morning. This front is forecast to work its way slowly southward into southeastern New Mexico today and tonight. Normally we don't see too many cold fronts make it this far south in July. Its not totally unheard of but not very common either.

 Several outflow boundaries are also draped across the area from yesterday's crop of thunderstorms to our east and north. An upper level disturbance moving southwestward out of the Texas Panhandle is forecast to cross the area tonight into tomorrow.

 So it appears that a nearly perfect setup is taking shape across the area to produce some very  badly needed beneficial rainfall totals over the next couple of days. While the area desperately needs a good soaking rain to help break the back of the drought, the flip side of this is that heavy rains may cause some flash flooding concerns over the area.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to break out area wide today as the cold front enters the area. Some of these thunderstorms may persists well into the night. Widespread soaking rainfall is forecast to fall over all of the area from this afternoon into Wednesday.

 Widespread storm total rainfall amounts of 1" - 2" are expected. Localized heavier totals associated with the slow moving and persistent thunderstorms will be possible just about anywhere. If the forecast models are to believed, some of us may see storm totals in excess of 3" - 4" by Wednesday night. The heavier thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1" - 2" per hour.

Flash flooding will be a concern across the area today into Wednesday night. Special concern will be over and below all of the local burn scars created from our recent fires, not only from this year, and last year, but over the past ten years. This will include the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains.

 These areas will be susceptible to rapid flash flooding, much more so than normal, due to the loss of vegetation, trees, and the scorched nature of the ground. If the widespread heavy rains develop as forecast, we may see many arroyos across the area flood. Some of these normally dry arroyos have not run for years.

Today's highs are forecast to range from the low-mid 90's across the southeastern plains. Some of us may not get this warm if the cold front arrives a little sooner than forecast. Tomorrow will be cooler with the 80's currently being forecast. I would not be surprised to see overcast and rainy skies keep some of us from getting out of the 70's.  

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