Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Artesia-Cottonwood LP Supercell Chase Time-Lapse Video

Promises Of Monsoonal Rains Disappointing.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As of 7 AM MDT).

Recent expectations of additional rainfall across southeastern New Mexico from our annual summer monsoon this week, have so far, proved to be rather disappointing. It appears we have one more shot at seeing scattered thunderstorms pop up across the plains today...then our chances fade into the weekend. Again the mountains have the best shot at seeing rain.

At the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere an easterly wave located near the Texas Big Bend continues to move slowly westward into Mexico. This trend will continue for the next several days. It will eventually help shove our southerly monsoonal flow westward into Arizona, and cut off our chances for rain in southeastern New Mexico into the weekend.

Our high temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid-upper 90's today into the weekend. By the end of the weekend into the first of next week it appears we will once again be flirting with the century mark. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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  1. Figured, but 2 months to go of more decent rain chances - at least statistically! The way the air went from fresh, humid to toasty, bone dry yesterday up here was discouraging.

  2. So far our summer monsoon appears to be a little on the weak side. Hopefully things will pick up between now and the end of September.

  3. Everytime I hear about a high pressure ridge I get really scared because these things have a tendency to stick around a long time! Its the reason its been a horrible drought for a lot of the mid west! And to hear that this high pressure is extending into New Mexico at the height of our monsoon is indeed troubling because I fear that it means an abrupt early end to the New Mexico monsoon season! AZ, Nevada etc will continue with the normal monsoons into September but my best guess is its over for New Mexico and we'll be back to wild fire danger in the fall! Oh yeh something interesting to ponder. If El Nino starts as some predict it possibly will, New Mexico may see a change from previous El Ninos where we get above ave moisture. This time around we may get below ave. moisture during El Nino just like we get during La Nina! I know it sounds weird but think about the power these great plains and Texas high pressure ridges have. They just may extend El Nino Drought down to New Mexico beyond the more common El Nino drying trend of the north plains/northern states!
    My prediction on-7/31/2012: for what may end up being the worst drought in 300 years!

    JK signing off


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