Thankfully our afternoon high temperatures have cooled down about ten degrees across the area. This trend is forecast to continue for the rest of this week. We will see afternoon highs this week closer to our climatology normal's...low-mid 90's.
Our annual summer monsoon will do its best to get a jump start this week as an upper-level trough of low pressure located over northern Mexico moves slowly northwestward. Southwestern and southern New Mexico appear at this time to be the most favored areas for wetting rains this week.
Locally the best chances for afternoon and nighttime thunderstorms will occur over and near the mountains. Especially over the higher elevations of the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. The Ruidoso, Cloudcroft, and surrounding communities generally have a 20% - 40% chance of getting wet each day this week.
As has been discussed before there will be a threat for flash flooding over and downstream of any burn scar areas. This includes the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains. I posted a blog concerning this issue on June 22nd. Click on this link to read the article.
Southeastern New Mexico has the least chance of getting wet this week. There may be a few popcorn type hit and miss thunderstorms on the 4th of July, but otherwise it appears that the rain will stay off to our west for now.
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