Roswell Reached 91F Saturday - Rain Still Possible Next Week.









GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.

Last nights 00Z/6 PM MDT run of the GFS model drops out cutoff low into northern Baja, California by sunrise next Thursday morning. The computer forecast models are showing signs of disagreeing on exactly where this storm will end up and for how long. Which is fairly typical for this type of storm. It may end up wobbling around northern Mexico into next weekend.


GFS Surface Map Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.

Last nights GFS surface map forecast shows that a backdoor cold front will be moving southward and westward down the eastern plains of New Mexico Wednesday into Thursday morning. Low level upslope from from the southeast is forecast to combine with the lift and instability of the cutoff low to our west to help moisten up and destabilize the atmosphere. Therefore the calendar may say that its the first week of November but thunderstorms are forecast over the area Wednesday into at least Thursday. Some of these may be strong. Cooler temps will invade the area behind the frontal passage.


GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016. 




Our chances for a decent rain still look good. Last nights run of the GFS model continues to paint 1" to 1.50" across most of the southeastern plains from Wednesday into next weekend. This is not 100% for certain though. Should the cutoff low to our southwest end up digging further west and stalling then our chances of rain would be less as would the amount that falls. 





Nowhere to be found anytime soon according to the GFS Ensemble model forecasts. Normally the Pecos Valley sees its first freeze by the last week of October into the first week of November.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Continued Very Warm Through Wednesday - Rain Later Next Week?




GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.


European (ECMWF) 500 MB (18,000' MSL Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Nov 2, 2016.

Canadian (GEM) 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.

Our warm and dry October weather is forecast to continue into next Wednesday dominated by a stout ridge of high pressure aloft. By Thursday the GFS, ECMWF, and the GEM models agree that a cutoff upper level low (depicted by each model above at the 500 millibar level, or at 18,000' above seal level) will park itself just south of Arizona or southwest of New Mexico. Nothing unusual about this since these types of storms happen fairly frequently in the fall. By saying it is a cutoff storm this means that the storm itself is cut off from the jet stream flow which will remain well north of the state in Canada. When this happens these storms tend to move little or very slowly and have been known to produce heavy rain and snow across the state. 








GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016.

GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016.

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, Nov 5, 2016.

GFS 10-Day Temp & Rainfall Forecast For Artesia, NM.

Heavy rain in November in New Mexico is not something we see a lot of. So when the models crank out 1" to 2" of rainfall from next Thursday into Sunday it catches my eye. Not that its impossible for this to happen, its not, it just does not happen that often.











Time to throw the caution flag up. These forecasts are 5-7 days out and there could likely be some changes as the models get a better handle of this storm. One thing appears pretty certain is that the airmass over the state will remain too warm for any significant snowfall through next weekend and this includes the northern mountains of the state.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

What Goes Up - Comes Down - Eventually.





So far this October has been rather warm and dry for New Mexico. And warm (above normal temps) for much of the nation. Normally we would be getting very close to experiencing our first freeze of the season but this is not to be for awhile. Perhaps not for another 10 days to two weeks here in SE NM if not longer. 

(Oct 1st - 27th, 2016).


Average high temp so far this month= 83.6
Normal high temp so far this month= 76.4

Average low temp so far this month= 48.2
Normal high temp so far this month= 47.3

Average temp so far this month= +4.1 above normal.

(Oct 1st - 27th, 2016).


Average high temp so far this month= 84.0
Normal high temp so far this month= 78.7

Average low temp so far this month= 51.7
Normal high temp so far this month= 48.5

Average temp so far this month= +4.3 above normal.

(Oct 1st - 27th, 2016).


Average high temp so far this month= 65.6
Normal high temp so far this month= 60.0

Average low temp so far this month= 39.1
Normal high temp so far this month= 33.6

Average temp so far this month= +5.6 above normal.

There is an old saying that goes like this: "What goes up - will come down." Time and time again this has proven to be true in the weather world. Octobers weather may be warm and tranquil now but in time this will change. Just because its warm now does not necessarily mean that it will stay this way through the coming late fall and winter. 





These three maps above show that the average temperature so far this month has ranged below to much below normal across the European and northern Asian Continent. This is important because it may give us a clear indication of what our coming weather may look like in the U.S. in a couple of weeks. The cold that has been bottled up here will likely translate eastward into the U.S. in the coming weeks/months. Trying to figure out when and just how cold is always a major challenge. Notice too that much of Alaska southeast into Western and Central Canada has been below normal too. 


10-Day Temperature & Precipitation Forecast For Carlsbad, NM.

The models are hinting at a change come the middle of next week. A cutoff or closed upper level low is forecast to drop into the area by mid week perhaps giving us a shot at some rain and cooler temps.

What Lies Ahead This Winter?



Long range weather forecasting in my opinion is risky business to say the least. I've never been a fan of this simply because there is just too much that we don't know about the atmosphere, the oceans, and the sun, and how they interact together. To say its complicated hardly gives the subject justice. 

I do not, nor have I ever bought into the AGW/Climate Change foolishness that mankind is somehow changing the planet's climate. I do however believe that the planet's climate cycles both on a short and long term scale. Trust me the impacts from what occurs on the sun and its direct and indirect influences upon the earth's atmosphere and its oceans are by far more important that anything mankind can do. 

Not everyone agrees with the NWS long range forecast above and I will post more on this in coming weeks.




Without a doubt this upcoming winter is going to be very interesting given the fact the our sun continues its spiral downward as far as sunspot activity and brightness (API) is concerned. This combined with the earth's oceans and atmosphere as they react to the sun's activity. Complicating this upcoming winter forecasts is the current transition out of a strong El Nino to La Nina conditions across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The jury is still out on how this all will unfold so check back for updates in the coming weeks.

What Does History Say?

I've been looking back into our local climate records at some of our coldest winters here in southeastern New Mexico and comparing them to the pattern setup we have now and what may come this winter. 

Digging through our local newspapers and local historical records spanning the mid 1800's up until the early 2000's I found some pretty amazing stories. Remember that the Dalton Solar Minimum ended in 1830. Here are some of comments from those stories:

Winter of 1832- " Rivers were reported frozen solid enough to support mounted men and pack trains."
Winter of 1863-1864- "Temperatures reached -20ºF in December of 1863 and -22ºF in January of 1864 in Fort Sumner. The Pecos River was covered in ice 2 inches thick." 

Winter of 1886-1887- "A severe winter with frequent blizzards. Temperatures remained below 0ºF for 2-3 weeks in January 1887. November 4-6 1886 snow was reported to be 29" deep in Roswell".

Listed below are some of our temperatures recorded by our local National Weather Service Climate Co-Op Stations. These are our top coldest daytime and overnight low temperatures for Roswell, Artesia, and Carlsbad.

 Note: These values do not reflect the current climate data being used by NOAA since that organization decided a couple of years ago to alter its records to reflect its current Climate Change policies as dictated by the powers to be in Washington, D.C. I've kept copies of the older Climate Data records before they were altered and this is what I am using below.

Roswell, NM.

  
                Coldest High Temps                   Coldest Low Temps  
  Roswell (1893-2016) Roswell (1893-2016)  
   
1 5 1/12/1963 (WSO) 1 -29 2/13/1905  
2 9 1/12/1963 (Row Ind) 2 -24 2/8/1933  
3 10 2/8/1933 3 -24 1/11/1962 (WSO)
4 10 1/10/1962 (WSO) 4 -22 1/13/1963 (Ros Ind)
5 10 2/2/2011 (Row Ind) 5 -20 2/12/1905  
6 11 1/10/1962 6 -19 1/8/1913  
7 12 2/15/1899 7 -18 1/18/1949  
8 12 2/13/1905 Row Ind) 8 -16 1/22/1966 (WSO)
9 12 1/11/1962 (Row Ind) 9 -15 2/7/1933  
10 12 12/24/1983 (Row Ind) 10 -15 1/18/1949  
  11 -15 1/13/1963 (WSO)
  12 -14 2/16/1895  
  13 -11 1/30/1949  
  14 -10 2/15/1895  
  15 -10 12/20/1909  
  16 -10 1/9/1913  
  17 -10 1/29/1948  
  18 -10 1/14/1963 (WSO)
  19 -9 1/10/1962 (Ros Ind)
  20 -9 1/12/1963 (Ros Ind)
  21 -9 1/2/1979 (Ros Ind)
  22 -8 12/9/1978 (Ros Ind)
  23 -8 2/3/2011  
  24 -7 1/7/1913 (Ros Ind)
  25 -7 12/8/1978  (Ros Ind)
Ros Ind- Roswell Industrial Airport.  
WSO- National Weather Service Office at the Old Municipal Airport.    

Artesia, NM.

             Coldest High Temps     Coldest Low Temps  
  Artesia 6S (1905-2016) Artesia 6S (1905-2016)  
   
1 7 1/8/1933 1 -35 2/8/1933  
2 9 1/13/1963 2 -20 1/11/1962  
3 11 2/9/1933 3 -16 1/12/1962  
4 12 1/11/1962 4 -13 12/15/1987  
5 13 2/3/2011 5 -11 1/8/1913  
6 15 2/4/2011 6 -11 1/11/1913  
7 16 2/7/1989 7 -11 12/24/1953  
8 17 12/9/1978 8 -11 12/9/1978  
9 17 12/25/1983 9 -10 12/1/1918  
10 18 2/1/1985   10 -10 11/29/1976  

Carlsbad, NM Climate Co-Op Station.

  Coldest High Temps     Coldest Low Temps  
  Carlsbad CL (1900-2016) Carlsbad CL (1900-2016)  
   
1 12 2/3/2011 1 -17 2/8/1933  
2 12 1/13/1963 2 -16 1/11/1962  
3 16 2/4/2011 3 -13 2/9/1933  
4 18 1/11/1962 4 -7 1/11/1918  
5 19 1/1/2015 5 -6 1/12/1918  
6 19 1/1/0/1977 6 -6 2/1/1951  
7 19 2/7/1989 7 -6 1/5/1972  
8 19 1/14/1997 8 -5 2/13/1905  
9 20 2/2/2011 9 -4 1/4/1947  
10 20 2/8/1933   10 -4 12/24/1953  

Carlsbad, NM Airport.

  Coldest High Temps     Coldest Low Temps  
  Carlsbad Arpt (1930-2016) Carlsbad Arpt (1930-2016)  
   
1 10 1/12/1963 1 -18 1/11/1962  
2 11 2/2/2011 2 -10 2/8/1933  
3 14 1/10/1962 3 -4 2/1/1951  
4 14 2/3/2011 4 -4 12/29/1983  
5 15 2/1/1985 5 -4 12/15/1987  
6 17 1/29/1949 6 -4 2/4/2011  
7 17 1/11/1962 7 -3 1/20/1963  
8 17 1/4/1972 8 -2 1/12/1962  
9 17 12/25/1983 9 -2 1/5/1972  
10 18 2/2/1956   10 -2 1/10/1977  

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Is This October Or May?







This Mornings GFS 500 MB Analysis.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Sunday, Oct 30, 2016.

For all you snow lovers unfortunately the 500 millibar death ridge has shut down any hope of colder temperatures and snow for New Mexico at least for the upcoming week. None of the computer models break this ridge of high pressure down over the next seven days. 

A few rain showers will be possible over parts of western and northern New Mexico early next week but overall most of the state will miss out. Our daily high temperatures across New Mexico will generally run some 5 to 15 degrees above normal this upcoming week into next weekend.

Bummer...I like many of you are ready for some colder and more typical late October weather. So tired of summer trying to hang on. Oh well November isn't that far away.


Today - Sunday, Oct 23, 2016.

Monday.

Tuesday.

Wednesday.

Thursday.

Friday.

Saturday.

Sunday, Oct 30, 2016.











The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

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Regional Radar

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