Threat Increasing For Severe Thunderstorms In SE NM & W TX Today!

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


   Severe thunderstorms with wind damage, a few tornadoes and isolated
   large hail are expected to develop across parts of the southern High
   Plains this afternoon and evening. The wind-damage threat may affect
   areas as far east as central Texas after midnight.

   ...Eastern New Mexico/West and Central Texas...
   An upper-level low will move across the southwestern U.S. today as
   south-southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the
   southern High Plains. At the surface, a Pacific cold front will move
   across the upper Rio Grande Valley as a powerful low pressure system
   gathers strength across eastern Colorado. A corridor of maximized
   low-level moisture is forecast to take shape across far West Texas
   extending northward into southeast New Mexico, where a pocket of
   moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon.
   Convection will first initiate in central New Mexico this afternoon
   as large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level low spreads
   eastward. As low-level convergence becomes enhanced along and ahead
   of the front, surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to initiate
   across southeastern New Mexico. These storms will move eastward and
   likely congeal into a squall line by early evening. A linear MCS is
   forecast to move eastward across west Texas during the evening.

   RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis near Midland this
   evening show MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, veering wind profiles with
   height, strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates.
   This environment should be favorable for supercells. A few
   tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible with
   supercells from southeast New Mexico into far West Texas late this
   This potential should shift eastward into West Texas by
   early evening as storms congeal into a squall line. A tornado threat
   will continue with the squall line with embedded rotating cells and
   bow echoes. However, the greatest threat is forecast to be with
   damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the line. A 30 percent
   wind-damage probability has been introduced across southeast New
   Mexico and West Texas along the expected track of the squall line.
   The squall-line and wind-damage threat should continue eastward into
   west-central Texas during the mid to late evening, gradually
   diminishing during the overnight period.

   ..Broyles/Dean.. 03/12/2019



NWS Albuquerque Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 3:06 AM MDT.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

A very active weather pattern will unfold over the next several days
as a potentially historic storm takes shape over New Mexico today
through Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorms will expand in coverage
today over the entire area. A few storms over eastern New Mexico may
become severe today and tonight with large hail, damaging winds,
frequent lightning, minor flooding, and even a couple tornados.
Meanwhile, colder air will move into western New Mexico this evening
and transition rain over to snow into the lower elevations. Heavy
snow is expected after midnight over much of northern and western
New Mexico, especially west facing slopes. Snow will likely continue
into Wednesday while winds begin to rip across the state. Widespread
strong to potentially damaging winds are possible from the Rio Grande
Valley eastward through the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be much colder through Thursday with additional
snowfall possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.


A highly complex weather scenario is evolving over the area as a
potentially historic late winter storm system intensifies across NM
through Wednesday. The most challenging aspect is the timing and
placement of rain to snow over northern and western NM tonight and
Wednesday as cold air moves into the area on potentially widespread
damaging winds.

The storm system will undergo bombogenesis as it shifts east onto
the high plains Wednesday. The H5 low center will deepen to near
528dm while the associated surface low deepens to near 971mb. But
first, deep layer southerly flow ahead of the system will advect
record moisture into NM today with abundant instability leading to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Several storms are likely to
become severe over the east central and southeast plains today with
large hail, damaging wind, frequent lightning, minor flooding, and
even a couple tornados possible. SPC has elevated the severe risk to
"Enhanced" for parts of southeastern NM.

Once the severe aspect of this storm shifts east, the focus will be
winter weather and high winds over a large part of the state late
tonight into Wednesday. High snow levels today will lower quickly
tonight as the core of the deepening upper low crosses the area and
moist, unstable upslope flow begins over the northern and western
high terrain. Guidance has been very consistent with a secondary
piece of energy shearing into the back side of the departing low
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The combination of strong winds,
colder temperatures, snow, and blowing snow will make for nasty
winter weather conditions, therefore a winter storm warning has been
expanded over a good chunk of northern NM and the Southwest Mts.

700mb winds on the back side of the upper low are near 75 kt over
eastern NM with a very intense surface pressure gradient. MOS wind
output is higher than several forecasters in the office have ever
seen which elevates the seriousness of a potentially widespread
damaging wind event Wednesday afternoon and evening. High wind
watches will remain intact for now across central and eastern NM
however it is very likely that warnings are forthcoming soon. Once
the intense low shifts east onto the Great Plains a back door cold
front will move southwest into northeastern NM while a broad upper
level trough remains in place over northern NM. This set up will
allow snow to continue over the Sangres through Thursday.


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