Powerful Storm To Hammer Area Monday Into Wednesday With Wild Weather.

(Day Three - Monday, March 11, 2019).

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, March 12, 2019.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday, March 13, 2019.

Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, March 13, 2019.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, March 13, 2019.

Incredible rapid and deep surface pressure falls (bombogenesis?) are being forecast by some of the models this Saturday morning. This will be amazing if this verifies. This mornings (12Z) GFS run forecasts a surface pressure reading of 994 millibars or 29.35" of mercury at 6 PM MDT Tuesday. By sunrise Wednesday morning 983 millibars or 29.03" of mercury over southeastern Colorado at 6 AM MDT Wednesday morning. By noon the model drops the pressure of the surface low to 975 millibars or 28.79" of mercury. And at 6 AM MDT Thursday down to 974 millibars or 28. 76" of mercury.

Late winter and early spring storms often exhibit this type of rapid deepening at times when exiting stage right out of the Southwestern US and into the southern or central plains. Blizzard conditions along with heavy snows look possible early next week on the cold side of this potent storm too. Keep in mind that this is just one models forecast with the likely hood that there will be changes in its and other models forecasts concerning this upcoming major storm over the next couple of days.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday, March 14, 2019.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday, March 14, 2019.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday, March 14, 2019.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday, March 14, 2019.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, March 11, 2019.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, March 12, 2019.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, March 12, 2019.

Powerful Early Spring-Like Storm Monday & Tuesday May Produce First Local Severe Weather Outbreak For The Year. 

A very powerful late winter/early spring storm is forecast to drop into the Desert Southwest Monday into Tuesday. Incredibly low surface pressure values are being forecast with this very strong storm. Impressive rapid deepening/strengthening of the storm both at the surface and aloft are forecast to occur Tuesday into Wednesday as it lifts northeastward out of New Mexico and into the central plains. At the surface rapidly dropping surface pressure values are currently being forecast by some of the computer forecast models. Record low surface pressure readings are forecast by the GFS model in this mornings run. 

Heads Up Folks - Time To Thinking About Severe Thunderstorms.

Monday Into Tuesday Night.

Locally across Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas our first bout with severe thunderstorms may occur Monday into Tuesday...especially on Tuesday if the model forecasts are correct. A sharp dryline is forecast to back westward into the area Monday and Tuesday. Low level southeasterly upslope flow from the Gulf of Mexico will push northwestward into the area along with a very unstable air mass. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will all be possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday night. I won't be surprised to see a few isolated tornadoes develop either. 

Widespread moderate to locally rainfall looks possible Monday into Tuesday night across much of the local area. Heavier rainfall totals from the storm may be in the 1" to 2" range.

Heavy mountain snows also look possible across the Sacramento and Capitan mountains as well as across the western and northern New Mexico mountains. Locally the higher elevations of our mountains could end up with a foot or more of snow.

Significant High Wind Event Tuesday Afternoon Into Wednesday?
 A widespread significant prolonged high wind event looks possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Blowing dust may be widespread also but how bad and how widespread it will be will be determined by how much rain and snow falls Sunday night into Tuesday night. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!


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