Near Record To Record Heat Today Into Sunday - The Latest On El Niño.
Hondo, New Mexico.
New Mexico's weather in May is interesting to say the least. Over time, we've seen it all this month. From raging forest and rangeland fires, drought, high winds and duststorms, late winter snows, hard freezes, heat waves, severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, very large hail, heavy rain, and flash flooding.
May usually marks the beginning of our severe weather season in southeastern New Mexico, which normally lasts through June. Our severe weather season can start as early as March and last through July in some years. Round two usually comes in late August through October.
May usually marks the beginning of our severe weather season in southeastern New Mexico, which normally lasts through June. Our severe weather season can start as early as March and last through July in some years. Round two usually comes in late August through October.
While we suffer through daily high temps near to slightly above 100 today through Sunday with virtually no chance of getting wet, I thought I'd take a trip down memory lane with you and list some of our more notable weather extremes, starting with today.
From NWS Albuquerque:
The first record of a tornado in New Mexico occurred on this date in 1883. The tornado occurred in Santa Fe, a small home was destroyed, two homes were unroofed, a bank and other businesses were damaged. Applied retroactively, the tornado would have been likely rated as an F2.
From the NWS Climate Database:
On this date in 1927, Artesia officially recorded a low of 27.
Roswell recorded a low of 29 on this date in 1913.
By May 12th,1941, Artesia had already recorded 9.10" of rainfall for the year. Carlsbad had recorded 9.83."
Ruidoso recorded a low on this date of 19 in 1972.
Capitan recorded a low on this date of 22 in 1930.
Cloudcroft recorded a low of 23 on this date of 23 in 1953.
Cloudcroft had already recorded 15.20" of rainfall by May 12th, 1958, with a season (Oct-May) snowfall total of 180.1", their highest on record.
The Carlsbad Airport reached 105 for a high temp on May 12th, 1996.
Hailstones measuring 2.25" in diameter were reported in 16 Springs Canyon northeast of Cloudcroft on May 12th, 1965.
By May 12th, 1941, Mountain Park had already recorded 12.48" of rain for the year.
By May 12th, 1905, Alamogordo had already recorded 8.66" of rainfall for the year.
On this date in weather history...May 12th.
From NWS Albuquerque:
The first record of a tornado in New Mexico occurred on this date in 1883. The tornado occurred in Santa Fe, a small home was destroyed, two homes were unroofed, a bank and other businesses were damaged. Applied retroactively, the tornado would have been likely rated as an F2.
From the NWS Climate Database:
On this date in 1927, Artesia officially recorded a low of 27.
Roswell recorded a low of 29 on this date in 1913.
By May 12th,1941, Artesia had already recorded 9.10" of rainfall for the year. Carlsbad had recorded 9.83."
Ruidoso recorded a low on this date of 19 in 1972.
Capitan recorded a low on this date of 22 in 1930.
Cloudcroft recorded a low of 23 on this date of 23 in 1953.
Cloudcroft had already recorded 15.20" of rainfall by May 12th, 1958, with a season (Oct-May) snowfall total of 180.1", their highest on record.
The Carlsbad Airport reached 105 for a high temp on May 12th, 1996.
Hailstones measuring 2.25" in diameter were reported in 16 Springs Canyon northeast of Cloudcroft on May 12th, 1965.
By May 12th, 1941, Mountain Park had already recorded 12.48" of rain for the year.
By May 12th, 1905, Alamogordo had already recorded 8.66" of rainfall for the year.
How Will El Niño Affect Our Annual Summer Monsoon This Year?
El Niño Neutral conditions prevail as of today over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest El Niño Advisory calls for El Niño to strengthen through the rest of this month into the fall. With the possibility of a very strong El Niño developing by August.
A Cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) developed in October of 2019 and continues as of today.
New Mexico's weather is controlled by a number of factors, including the PDO, El Niño/La Niña, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Pacific oceanic Kelvin waves, Solar cycles, and other factors. It is a complicated dance that is never easy to try to figure out what is going to happen with our weather.
This year will be especially interesting, given the fact that we are still in the middle of a multiyear ongoing drought, an ongoing cold PDO, and the potential of a strong El Niño developing by late this summer or fall. There has been a tremendous amount of hype about a super El Niño developing, and for now, I'm not buying into it. I've seen this brought up before with many of our recent El Niño episodes, only to have those who hyped such an event turn out to be wrong. So I'll take more of a wait-and-see attitude for now.
Studies have shown that when we have a dry winter in New Mexico, we have a wet summer or above normal rainfall over the state during our annual summer monsoon. Our winter snowpack is at record low levels this spring and may end up being the lowest on record. So it is possible that we may experience a wetter than normal summer this year, which is badly needed.
Just because El Niño develops by summer is no guarantee that we will have a wet summer this year. Looking at my yearly rainfall totals here at our home in Carlsbad since 2015, I've only had four years with above-average rainfall. My long-term (2007_2026) yearly average is 12.85". My PRISM average is 12.49".
2015- 20.85" My wettest year since 2007, when I started keeping precipitation records.
2016- 13.05"
2017- 15.55"
2018- 10.36"
2019- 10.49"
2020- 4.63"
2021- 16.98"
2022- 11.54"
2023- 7.72"
2024- 5.20"
2025- 9.89"
2026- 2.10" (Jan 1st - May 12th).
Some El Niño summers are very hot and dry in New Mexico.
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located 15 miles east-southeast of Carlsbad, set a new all-time record high for the state of 122 on June 27, 1994.
Lakewood (My home at the time) unofficially reached 119 on June 27, 1994.
Hope reached 115 on June 15, 1994.
June 27, 1994, Roswell officially recorded its all-time record high temp of 114.
Carlsbad hit 114 on June 28, 1994.
El Paso set its all-time record high of 114 on June 30, 1994.
Albuquerque set a new all-time record high temp of 107 on June 26, 1994.
Ruidoso's all-time high of 98 on June 26, 1994.
All in the middle of a weak El Niño year, using the RONI index.
The summer of 2023 was another brutal summer for New Mexico, temperature-wise. Multiple New Mexico NWS Climate COOP Stations set new daily record highs during the summer of 2023.
On July 19, 2023, Roswell set a new all-time July record high temp for the month of 112.
Elk, which is located east of Mayhill in the foothills of the Sacramento Mountains, hit an astounding 110 on July 22, 2023, to establish a new all-time record high temp.
Looking ahead at the CPC long-range forecasts, the next two weeks look to be above normal temperatures and better than normal chances for rain across the state. This trend continues into the May-June-July outlook period. What happens during the rest of the summer into the fall is still questionable.
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 558 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 - A heat wave is expected to begin today, lasting through the weekend. - High temperatures in portions of the Big Bend are forecast to be between 105 and 110 degrees Wednesday through the weekend. &&
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 525 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026 - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of central and eastern NM due to near-record heat. - Localized strong and erratic wind gusts from isolated showers and storms, with little to no rainfall, late Wednesday across much of western and northern New Mexico. - Low to moderate chance (30-50%) of critical fire weather conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday. Low chance (20-30%) on Sunday and Monday across much of the area. &&
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1046 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1023 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026 - Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend, peaking on Wednesday with lowland highs in the mid-upper 90s. - There will be a slight chance for dry lightning in the Gila Wilderness on Wednesday afternoon. - Breezy and very dry conditions from Thursday onward, creating elevated fire weather. &&
Wednesday.
Thursday.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
May 2026 Outlook.
6-10 Day Outlook.
May-June-July.
June-July-August.
July-August-September.
August-September-October.
Note: These forecasts were issued by the CPC on April 6t, 2026. Upcoming forecasts may differ as El Niño conditions continue to develop over the eastern Pacific Ocean.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.