Slight Chance For T-Storms This Evening - A Few May Be Severe.


Cloudy skies blanket most of southeastern New Mexico early this morning as mid-level moisture is funneled northeastward ahead of an approaching upper-level storm to our west. Radar has been showing an area of light rain showers over the area for the last couple of hours, although most of this activity is more than likely virga, and not reaching the ground. I had a few sprinkles here at my home in Carlsbad at 5:20 AM. 


Our next inbound storm will produce lowland rain showers and mountain snows over the state today into Sunday. We at least have a chance for some rain here in southeastern New Mexico, with the best chances coming tonight from a few scattered thunderstorms.

T-Storms Some Possibly Severe This Evening.

A strong upper-level low was located just off the southern California Coast at sunrise this morning. The atmosphere over the local area has destabilized somewhat as disturbances are kicked northeastward out of this storm and move overhead. This has produced some light rain showers over southeastern New Mexico overnight, and this activity will continue off and on in a very scattered nature today.
As the upper-level storm to our west draws closer late this afternoon into tonight the dryline is still forecast to sharpen up along the NM/TX state line. It is also forecast to retreat back westward into southeastern New Mexico by around sunset. Low-level southeasterly upslope flow from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to surge northwestward along and east of the dryline. Although a deep and rich surge of moisture is currently not anticipated. Dew Point temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 40's and 50's east of the dryline today into tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are still forecast to break out along and east of the dryline later this afternoon, and continue into this evening. This is not the best setup for severe weather though. Surface based cape values are forecast to be in the 500 to 750 j/kg range, along with 0-6 km wind shear values of around 60 - 70 knots.
Its still possible that a few of these thunderstorms may become severe, with the greatest threat from them being large hail, and possibly damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. It appears that most of these potentially severe thunderstorms will fire up around sunset and continue into the evening hours. These thunderstorms will likely be moving off to the northeast at around 45 mph.
With such limited severe weather paramarters, and most of the activity forecast to occur after dark, I currently do not anticipate calling for spotter activation across southeastern New Mexico or in the Midland NWS County Warning Area at this time.
Although spotter activation is not currently anticipated, our local Skywarn Storm Spotters are encouraged to monitor your local weather this afternoon and evening. Should you encounter severe weather please report it to the Midland National Weather Service Office. Remember you can also submit a spotter report on line via this link- Storm Reports.
 NAM 500 MB Forecast @ 11 AM MST Saturday.
A Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across the area tonight into Saturday. Westerly surface winds behind this front will make for a windy, dusty, and cooler day across the local area on Saturday. Westerly winds are currently forecast to gust up to around 40 mph in the Roswell, Artesia, Carlsbad, and Hobbs areas.  
GFS 6-Hour Accumulated Snowfall @ 6 PM MDT Sunday.
Ruidoso, Cloudcroft, and the surrounding higher elevations of the Sacramento and Capitan mountains still have a chance of seeing some light snowfall from tonight into Sunday. Current thinking is that new snowfall accumulations will remain below an inch or two at most. Although its possible that the highest peaks may pick up a little more than this.  
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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  1. Looks cold here with that moisture, yet to not get much or any of that as snow in Abq. Esp in the foothills at 5700'. (never mind, the latest forecast is now "less than" 1/2" of snow) But like many of these forming storm scenarios, who knows?

    And always interesting on your side of the state, how the dryline forms barely into far SE NM, but most moisture just E of the state line!


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