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Saturday, March 30, 2013

90 For Today - 40's On Tuesday!

This Easter is going to be a warm one. Carlsbad's forecast high temp today is 90F. Easter Sunday's high temps across SE NM will range from the upper 70's to the low 80's. Monday will be hot again with highs in the mid 80's to near 90. Then the bottom falls out...

GFS Surface Forecast @ Noon MDT Tuesday.

GFS Total Rainfall Forecast @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast @ Midnight MDT Tuesday.

GFS Wind Chill Temp Forecast @ Midnight MDT Tuesday.

A strong backdoor cold front will plow its way southwestward through the area Monday evening. Much colder air will overspread the area Monday night into Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday across southeastern New Mexico will likely only be in the 40's. Wind chill temperatures will drop down into the 20's and 30's Tuesday night.

There remains some uncertainty on just how far south the upper-level storm will dig into New Mexico Monday into Tuesday. The Canadian (GEM) and European (ECMWF) models are digging the storm a little further south into the state than the GFS. This of course will determine just how much rain and snow falls. 

Current forecasts indicate that Monday night into Wednesday is setting up to be a dreary, possibly damp, and rainy period for us. Although at this point the models aren't too excited about producing any meaningful rainfall or snowfall totals over the local area. Only light precipitation is expected with rainfall totals below a tenth or two of an inch forecast. 

Interestingly enough we may even see some light snow across parts of the southeastern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Roswell's current (as of 4 AM this morning) NWS forecast gives them a 20% chance of this happening. Clovis and Ruidoso both have about the same chances of seeing the white stuff Tuesday night. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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