Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Our Chances For T-Storms Still Looking Good.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.
Surface Cold Front Will Have Pushed Through Most Of
SE NM By Around Midnight Tonight.
Cold Front At Sunrise Tue Morning.
Cold Front At Noontime Tue.
Warm Front Retreats Northward By Around Sunset Tue.

Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight.

I have to admit that I am excited about our prospects of finally getting some rain (in the form of t-storms) tomorrow. The last eight months have been miserable to say the least. I have sucked down so much dust into my lungs that I am amazed that they continue to work. Like most of you I am sick and tired of the hot, dry, southwesterly winds, and the extreme drought conditions that continue to plague Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. To say that it is dry is the understatement of the year.

Some short term relief (hopefully) is coming in the form of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. A cold front is forecast to enter the area later tonight...and will stall somewhere near the state line tomorrow  By late tomorrow afternoon it is forecast to back northward as a warm front.

Low-level southeasterly moist upslope flow will infiltrate the local area behind the front tonight and tomorrow. This combined with an approaching upper-level disturbance, and the retreating warm front will combine to help produce our expected crop of thunderstorms.

The dryline at 7:00 PM MDT, was located just west of an Andrews-Midland line, and will back westward into Southeastern New Mexico tonight. Like last night, our dew point temperatures (and relative humidity values) will jump up dramatically once it arrives. My dew point temperature rose from 15F to 61F in an hours time last night with its arrival.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to break out across the area tomorrow. Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and in a few spots...locally heavy rainfall.

The good news is that some, if not most of us, should see some rainfall by late tomorrow night. Sadly, it will not be enough to break the drought. But we will take anything we can get right?

A few thunderstorms may roam the countryside Wednesday into Friday. But it looks like that these will be more of the dry type thunderstorms that produce more lightning and gusty winds than rainfall.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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