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Severe T-Storms Across West TX!
The dryline is forecast to become active this later today as an upper level disturbance approaches SE NM and West Texas later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the dryline later this afternoon and evening, roughly east of a Lamesa-Fort Stockton line.
A few of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and locally heavy rain. As of this writing this morning, the best chances of this happening will be across the Western Rolling Plains, the Eastern Permian Basin, and the Lower Trans Pecos Region of West Texas.
Hot & Dry Across SE NM!
With the dryline located well east of southeastern New Mexico in West Texas, we can look forward to another hot, dry, and breezy day. We can expect to see our afternoon high temps climb up into the upper 90's today.
A High Wind Watch has been Issued for the Guadalupe Mountains for Monday. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 35 - 45 mph with gusts near 65 mph tomorrow, and these strong winds will continue into Monday evening.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains for today. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of SE NM for Monday and Tuesday. Any wildfire that may accidentally develop will have the potential to rapidly spread and grow in the strong to high winds today into Tuesday.
No Hope For Rain On The Horizon.
After taking a look at the latest computer model forecast runs, (GFS, ECMWF, UK-MET, GEM, WRF/NAM) the chances for any meaningful rainfall occurring across SE NM over the next one to two weeks appears slim to none.
Another strong upper level storm is forecast to move across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Monday night into Wednesday. This will bring more hot, dry, downslopping southwesterly winds (gusting up to around 40 mph) to the local area Monday and Tuesday.
An upper level ridge of high pressure (with a northwesterly flow aloft) is then forecast to develop over the area from the middle to the end of next week. Hot, dry weather will be the theme of our local weather all week long, with high temps in the 90's. We may reach or exceed highs of 100-degrees by the end of the week.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!