Rain Showers & T-Storms Return Tonight Into Monday. Potential For A Major Winter Storm To Affect The State Beginning Monday.

ECMWF 500 Forecast.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

NWS SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook.

Valid from 5 AM MST Monday - 5 AM MST Tuesday.

A weak disturbance riding the subtropical jet stream to our south and southwest will increase our chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms starting tonight and ramping up Sunday into Monday. Severe weather may break out over parts of the area eastward into West Texas Sunday afternoon and more so on Monday.

An unusually strong and cold mid-upper level storm is forecast by the models to dig southeastward to the Four Corners area by Monday afternoon. They then differ on whether or not this powerful winter storm will then slide east across northern New Mexico or continue digging southeastward into southeast New Mexico and West Texas.

Northern New Mexico and possibly northeastern New Mexico are under the gun with this one. If the storm tracks just right the potentially could be looking at 1'-3' of snow (feet not inches) as was mentioned in this mornings Albuquerque National Weather Service Office Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). 

High winds will also impact the state Monday into possibly Tuesday. The Sacramento mountains also look like they may see more snow but how much will be highly dependent upon the storms track.

This storm has the potential to become a Major Winter Storm with high impacts upon New Mexico and nearby areas. More on this later.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!