Windy Wx Returns To NM - Blizzards & Severe Wx Across The Plains Tue Night - Wed.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook.

An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Wed (11/11)

"Severe thunderstorms associated with hail and wind damage are expected to develop in the Great Plains Wednesday morning. The severe threat should increase by afternoon as thunderstorms with wind damage and tornadoes move quickly eastward across the Mississippi Valley. The severe threat should reach the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by evening."

Wild weather for early November by mid week. A strong mid-upper level storm is forecast to swing southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and across northern Arizona on Tuesday. By Tuesday night into Wednesday this next storm will swing eastward across northern New Mexico. This means strong to high winds for much of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Blizzard conditions are possible for parts of the areas east of Denver, Colorado Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile a late season severe weather outbreak will occur from south-central Texas northeastward to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 11, 2015.

GFS Surface Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 11, 2015.

NWS Surface Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 11, 2015.

Courtesy Of The Boulder/Denver NWS Office.

# Of NWS Blizzard Warnings Since 2005.

Courtesy Of The Des Moines NWS Office.

GFS Forecast Temperature Anomalies.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Tuesday, Nov 10, 2015.

Blog Updated @ 3:48 PM MST.

Today and tomorrow will be rather warm here in southeastern New Mexico with forecast high temperatures ranging from near 75°F to near 80°F. These readings will cool down behind a Pacific cold front on Wednesday with most of us seeing highs ranging from near 60°F to near 68°F in the southeastern plains. Highs in the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains will range from near 40°F to near 52°F on Wednesday. 

Wind Advisories.

High Wind Warnings.

High Wind Watches.

Since this next potent early winter-like storm will move across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado this means we get left out of the precipitation here locally. It also means high winds will impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

For now it appears that some of the strongest winds outside of the mountains will occur over eastern New Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some westerly to northwesterly gusts in these areas may approach 60 mph. 

Here in the southeastern plains we are currently expecting to see southwesterly to westerly winds Tuesday night in the 15 to 25 mph range. Our winids crank up on Wednesday as the Pacific cold front sweeps east across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Westerly to northwesterly winds are forecast to gust up into the 40 mph range. 

The highest winds will occur over the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains and the Guadalupe mountains. The Queen and Guadalupe Pass areas are expecting winds to increase to sustained speeds of 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph Tuesday afternoon. These winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 40-50 mph after midnight Tuesday night with gusts in the 60-75 mph range. Guadalupe Pass and the Bowl area will likely have some of the highest winds.

Ruidoso and nearby areas will not escape these winds either. Southwesterly winds are forecast to become sustained at 25-30 with gusts near 45 mph on Tuesday. These winds will increase to sustained speeds of 35-40 mph with gusts near 55 mph Tuesday night. Northwesterly winds will be sustained at around 30-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph Wednesday.

As the upper level storm and strong surface low that will help generate these winds pulls rapidly off to the northeast Wednesday night these winds will relax. Clear skies, a drier airmass, and excellent radiational cooling will allow our temps to drop below freezing. Those of us like the Carlsbad area who have not yet experienced their first freeze will likely do so Thursday morning. Some of us may experience the first hard freeze of the season with temps dropping down into the mid-upper 20's.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!