Possible Tornado NW Of Clovis Yesterday Evening - Heavy Snows For The Sac's Today Into Tonight.

- Saturday, December 28, 2019

Possible Tornado Northwest Of Clovis Yesterday Evening.

What appears on these radar screenshots to be a low topped supercell thunderstorm produced a possible tornado about 13 miles northwest of Clovis, New Mexico at 4:52 PM MST Friday, December 27, 2019. A tornado vortex signature was noted on the radar with a base at around 800' extending up through nearly 5,000' Gate to gate wind shear at this time was 43 knots/ inbound and 72 knots outbound at 800' above the ground (the lowest tilt on the radar).

The parent thunderstorm was moving to the northeast at 30 mph. It was a quick spin up and the rotation that promoted the Tornado Warning for East-Central Curry County quickly fell apart. Pea size hail was reported in Portales and near Clovis, while penny size hail was reported 4 miles north of Newkirk, southwest of Tucumcari.

Looking at the Cross-Sectional view (second screenshot from the bottom) and the Volumetric view (bottom screenshot) distinctively depicts a very slanted updraft into the thunderstorm. Note too that it only managed to top out at about 30,000'.

Surface Map Analysis.

At 2 AM MST This Saturday Morning, December 28, 2019.

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 11 PM MST This Saturday Night, December 28, 2019.

A Pacific cold front marched eastward across the state yesterday, arriving in Southeastern New Mexico yesterday afternoon. A reinforcing shot of colder air will settle in behind a second cold front moving southward into the local area by around midnight tonight.

Mid-Upper Level Trough Of Low Pressure Swings Eastward Today Into Sunday.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis.

At 11 PM MST Friday, December 27, 2019.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST This Saturday Evening, December 28, 2019.

Valid At 11 PM MST This Saturday Evening, December 28, 2019.

A short wave trough of low pressure at the mid-upper levels (18,000') will slowly swing eastward across New Mexico today into tonight before lifting out of the state on Sunday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF models form a closed low over northwestern Kansas by tonight with a secondary core near El Paso around midnight.

Much colder air will invade the state today into Monday. This will allow snow levels to drop this afternoon in the Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains down to around 6,000'. By late tonight snow levels will be down to the valley floors.

Winter Storm Warning/Advisory For The Sacramento Mountains Today.

Windy Today.

High Wind Warning For The Guadalupe Mountains.

A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe mountains from 8 AM MST this morning through 8 PM MST tonight. West winds sustained of 30 to 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph are forecast.

Across the Pecos Valley and nearby areas, west winds will increase to sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 45-50 mph.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Sunday, December 29, 2019.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Sunday, December 29, 2019.

Winter Storm Warning - Southern Sacramento Mountains Today - Tonight.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1151 PM MST Fri Dec 27 2019

...Slow moving winter storm system will bring heavy mountain snow
to Southwest and South Central New Mexico...

..A cold front brought colder air to the region on Friday.
Saturday a slow moving upper level storm system will swing through
the region from the west. As it passes across Southern New Mexico
and Far West Texas it will further cool the region and bring
scattered to numerous mountain snow showers and isolated to
scattered lowland rain and snow mix. The snow will start in the
morning over the Gila and begin in the Sacramento mountains after
mid day. Area lowlands could see some light snow with minimal to
no accumulations in the late afternoon and evening hours. Snow
will end over western areas in the late afternoon hours and
persist east and south late into the evening on Saturday.


NMZ414>416-281900-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.WS.W.0004.191228T1900Z-191229T0700Z/
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park,
Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon,
and Sacramento
1151 PM MST Fri Dec 27 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MST SATURDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa has
issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect
from noon Saturday to midnight MST Saturday night.

* TIMING...Snow is expected to begin around noon and persist into
  the mid to late evening hours. The heaviest snow should fall in
  the late afternoon and early evening hours.

* SNOW AMOUNTS...3 TO 5 inches of snow is expected above 6500 ft.
  5 to 8 inches of snow expected above 7500 ft. Up to 10 inches of
  snow is possible over higher elevations.

* IMPACTS...Heavy snow will create slick and snowpacked road
  conditions. Some roads may become impassable. Hazardous travel
  conditions are expected due to the slick roads and reduced
  visibilities. Some roads may be closed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring.  Significant amounts of
snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in
an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

Winter Weather Advisory For The Northern Sacramento Mountains Today - Sunday Morning.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
414 AM MST Sat Dec 28 2019

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CONTINUE IMPACTING MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY...

NMZ226-281900-
/O.EXB.KABQ.WW.Y.0034.191228T1900Z-191229T1200Z/
South Central Mountains-
414 AM MST Sat Dec 28 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 4
  inches, except 4 to 8 inches above 7500 feet. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...South Central Mountains.

* WHEN...From noon today to 5 AM MST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mountain roads and passes will become snow-
  packed and icy. Use extreme caution if on the highways today or
  tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for New Mexico can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1, 1-800-432-4269, or visiting nmroads.com.




Colder Sunday Into Tuesday.

As the Winter Storm to our west works its way eastward into the area today into Sunday morning scattered rain showers and mountain snows are forecast to be on the increase over the area. Snow should start around noontime in the Sacramento mountains with lowering snow levels this afternoon into tonight.

Light rain showers tonight may change over to light snow showers across parts of the Southeastern Plains. Current thinking is that the best chances for snow locally will occur from about Roswell northward. With the heavier snowfall confined to the Sacramento mountains. Cloudcroft stands to get 5" to 8" from this storm with greater totals above 9,000'. The Ruidoso area should see 1" to 3" with 4" to 8" above 7,500'. Ski Apache may end up with a foot of new snow or more.

West winds gusting to around 40 mph today into tonight across the Sacramento mountains will cause some blowing and drifting of the snow...especially at the higher elevations. Wind chill values will range from around 10º at the lower mountain locations today, to near -10º at the higher elevations tonight, and -2º at the lower elevations tonight.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures.

High Temperatures Today.