Next Storm Could Mean Snow For Us Monday Night Into Tuesday.
December 3rd, 2019.
The Callaway Residence In Atoka South Of Artesia, NM.
Snow Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning?
Analysis At 11 PM MST Friday, December 26, 2019.
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday, December 9, 2019.
In my last blog post (Thursday, Dec 5, 2019) I discussed the possibility of a serious cold outbreak towards the end of next week. As you may have guessed already the computer forecast models have backed off totally on that possibility. No surprise...they do this a lot especially the GFS model. Note that many times the European model (ECMWF) performs much better (but not always) with our winter storms here in the Desert Southwest than the U.S. Global Forecast model (GFS).
Last nights run of the European forecast model (ECMWF) has decided that the long wave trough of low pressure that is forecast to swing eastward across the Rockies Sunday into Tuesday will leave a piece of its energy behind in the form of a small closed mid-upper level low. Centered over Roswell by sunset Monday. The Canadian and GFS model forecasts also pick up on this with the Canadian (GEM) being colder with more snowfall than the GFS.
It will be interesting to see what the short range model forecasts come up with Sunday and Monday concerning this.
Turning Colder Monday.
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, December 9, 2019.
As the closed upper level low now located west of northern California (at 18,000') dives southeastward then opens up into a long wave trough of low pressure today into Tuesday a Pacific cold front will sweep southeastward across the state Monday afternoon into Monday night. Locally our high temperatures in Southeastern New Mexico today will be in the 60's. Sunday's highs will be in the low to mid 70's, Monday's in the 50's to near 60, and Tuesday's highs in the 40's.
Valid At 11 PM MST Monday, December 9, 2019.
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, December 10, 2019.
Last nights 5 PM MST run of the European (ECMWF) forecast model calls for a slight chance for light rain to change over to light snow over the Sacramento mountains Sunday afternoon with snow levels around 9,000'. Snow levels lower in the Sac's on Monday down to around 6,000' by late afternoon.
Rain is forecast to change over to snow across the Southeastern Plains by around midnight Monday night and continue until around noontime Monday. This may change though as new model data comes in today, Sunday, and Monday.
Valid At 5 AM MST Tuesday, December 10, 2019.
Canadian (GEM) Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday, December 10, 2019.
National Weather Service (NWS) Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Tuesday, December 10, 2019.
Artesia.
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport.
Southeastern Plains.
Snowfall accumulations across the Southeastern Plains by Tuesday morning could be in the 1" to 3" range with locally higher totals possibly as high as 4" to 6". The higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains could end up with 6" or more.
This is just a first look at what I'm pretty sure will be a changing situation so check back later for any updates via my:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 250 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2019 ...POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE TUSAS AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS... .Moderate to heavy snowfall will favor the western slopes of the Jemez and Tusas Mountains beginning Sunday and lasting through Monday morning before gradually tapering off through the day Monday. An unusually strong tap of Pacific moisture will allow the potential for snow accumulations totaling up to or over a foot atop the peaks of the Jemez and Tusas Mountains. Travel impacts are likely from these snow amounts. NMZ210-211-072300- /O.NEW.KABQ.WS.A.0013.191208T1300Z-191210T0300Z/ Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez Mountains- 250 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 6 to 10 inches along west facing slopes, except 8 to 14 inches above 8500 feet possible. * WHERE...Tusas Mountains Including Chama and Jemez Mountains, focusing along west facing slopes. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!
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