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Winter Storm Taking Aim At New Mexico Friday - Sunday.



Valid At 11:31 AM MST This Thursday, December 26, 2019.

Next Winter Storm Impacts New Mexico Friday - Sunday.


Valid At 5 AM MST This Thursday Morning, December 26, 2019.

European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Friday Morning, December 27, 2019.

European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday Morning, December 28, 2019.

European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Sunday Morning, December 29, 2019.

As promised another Winter Storm was located just west of Los Angeles, California at sunrise this morning. This strong mid-upper level storm is forecast to move southeast today into Friday. Then lift northeastward across New Mexico on Saturday. By Sunday morning at sunrise, this mornings 5 AM MST run of the European model (ECMWF) is forecasting a strong closed mid-level low to be located near Hobbs, New Mexico as the storm continues lifting out to the northeast.


Valid At 5 PM MST Friday, December 27th, 2019.

The strong mid-upper level closed low is forecast by the European model to open up into a short wave trough of low pressure on Friday as it approaches southern New Mexico from the west. Meanwhile, a strong Pacific cold front is forecast to sweep eastward and into Southeastern New Mexico by sunset Friday. Colder temperatures will overspread the area Saturday into Monday.

How Much Snow Will Fall And Where?


Valid At 5 PM MST Friday, December 27, 2019.

Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, December 28, 2019.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday, December 29, 2019.

New Mexico ECMWF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday, December 29, 2019.

Comparing the three long-range forecast model snowfall forecasts from this morning's run we find that the European and the Canadian are similar in storm total snowfall amounts as well as the location of the heaviest snows. The GFS is far less bullish with its snowfall forecasts. 

Both the European and the Canadian change light rain over to light snow over parts of the Southeastern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. But will only light accumulation (if any) forecast. Maybe a 1/2" to an inch across parts of northern Chaves and Lea Counties and southwestern Eddy County over the Guadalupe mountain foothills with maybe 2" in the Queen area. 


Valid 5 AM MST Sunday Morning, December 29, 2019.




European (ECMWF) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday, December 29, 2019.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 11 PM MST Saturday Night, December 28, 2019.



NWS Albuquerque Winter Storm Watches In Effect For New Mexico.





URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
259 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2019

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

NMZ201>206-208-210>216-227>229-262300-
/O.NEW.KABQ.WS.A.0015.191227T0700Z-191228T2300Z/
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
259 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6
  inches, except 6 to 15 inches above 7500 feet possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, northwest and
  west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Interstate 40 from the Arizona border to
  Grants as well as Interstate 25 from the Glorieta area to Raton
  Pass will be affected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remember, a Winter Storm Watch means conditions are favorable for
a hazardous winter weather event in and close to the watch area.
Monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/abq, listen to NOAA
weather radio or your favorite media outlet.


Forecast Low Temperatures Friday Morning.


Forecast High Temperatures Friday Afternoon.


Forecast Low Temperatures Saturday Morning.


Forecast High Temperatures Saturday Afternoon.


Forecast Low Temperatures Sunday Morning.


Forecast High Temperatures Sunday Afternoon.






Southeastern New Mexico Winter Storm Impacts.


Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. West winds sustained at around 35 to 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph.

With the passage of the strong Pacific cold front and the mid-upper level storm this weekend our temperatures will finally cool down to below normal starting Saturday and continuing into much of next week. 

As of 1 PM MST this Friday afternoon, we have around a 20% chance for thunderstorms Friday night. Some of these thunderstorms may even approach marginally severe limits across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas Friday evening. Hail and gusty winds appear to be the primary severe weather threat at this time. 

Rainfall totals from this next storm appear to be low for the Southeastern Plains. Like our chances for snow, the current forecast track of the mid-upper level storm takes it a little too far north of us to give us much. Any shift in this storm track with the mid-upper level storm further to the north will lessen our chances for valley rain and mountain snows. A shift to the south will increase our chances for both precipitation types. 

Depending upon how far south the short wave trough approaching from the west digs this weekend, particularly Saturday night into Sunday, and if it closes off again, will help determine if we see any snow locally. More about all of this on Friday.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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