Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

First Winter Storm Moving Into Southwestern-Western NM Now.

Sunrise With The Moon - December 23, 2019.
Just North Of Lakewood, Between Carlsbad And Artesia, NM.

Rain & Snow Moving Into SW & W NM At 2 PM Christmas Eve.

Valid At 2:02 PM MST Christmas Eve Afternoon.
El Paso/Santa Teresa Dual-Pol Radar - Precipitation Type.

Intellecast New Mexico Radar - Precipitation Type.

Valid At 2 PM MST Christmas Eve Afternoon.

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Eve.

Valid At 11 AM MST Christmas Eve Morning.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

250 PM MST Tue Dec 24 2019


After a brief break Thursday, a much stronger and colder system
will approach from the west late Thursday night. Precipitation
will increase by Friday afternoon, starting off as rain in most
valley locations. As snow levels drop below 5000 ft Friday night,
rain will change to a mix or all snow. The most significant
impacts look to be along the east-central plains of New Mexico.
It's too early yet to give projected snowfall amounts, but it
looks like the northern high terrain could receive up to a foot or
more on the highest peaks and up to a couple of inches across
western and central valley locations. The window for the main
travel impacts still looks like Thursday night through Saturday.
However, there is some model disagreement as to how early the
system exits, which could be as early as Saturday morning and as
late as Saturday afternoon/evening.

Another winter storm could be possible New Years Eve and New Years
Day, which could lead to another round of significant travel
impacts across northern and central New Mexico.

Monitor NOAA weather radio, or your local media
for the latest weather updates. Anyone planning travel through
New Years Day should stay weather-wise and be prepared to
encounter hazardous winter weather conditions.

Rain showers and higher mountain snow showers are invading southwestern and western New Mexico as of 2 PM MST this Christmas Eve afternoon. This band of mixed wintry precipitation will reach the Sacramento mountains before sunset this evening. A few light rain showers are forecast early this evening for the local area. Most of the short-range models indicate that only trace amounts to perhaps around one-tenth of an inch of rain will fall over the local area.

At the 18,000' level, a negatively tilted short wave trough of low pressure stretched from central California southeastward into the central Baja Penisula. This short wave trough will swing northeastward across New Mexico tonight into Christmas.

Valid At 1:56 PM MST Christmas Eve Afternoon.

Valid At 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

NWS NDFD Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

All of the short-range forecast models have different ideas of how much snow will fall in the Sacramento mountains this Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Most are forecasting trace amounts up to perhaps a couple of inches. Generally, the middle ground appears to be around 1-3" with perhaps 3" to 6" above 9,000'. The Ruidoso area should see perhaps an inch or so on new snow on the ground by Christmas morning. The NAM 3k model depicted above is the most optimistic with 6"to 8" in the Cloudcroft and Ski Apache areas by sunrise Christmas morning. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

NWS NDFD Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

Valid At 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

Valid At 2 PM MST Christmas Afternoon.

A colder, stronger and potentially more impactful winter storm will begin to affect the state Thursday night into Friday, and perhaps well into the upcoming holiday weekend. Snow is in the cards for many areas of the state, perhaps heavy in some areas. How will it affect Southeastern New Mexico? I'll Try and anwer that beginning Thrusday. 

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