Seven Cabins Fire - Capitan Mountains.
Updated at 6:15 PM MDT.
A cold front backdoored its way south and west into southeastern New Mexico early this morning, a little faster than forecast. Cooler air has overspread the eastern half of the state east of the central mountain chain. So our highs today across the southeastern plains will mostly be in the 80s.
Southeasterly winds will increase low-level upslope flow from the Gulf tonight into Wednesday. This, combined with a series of shortwaves passing overhead, will help destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce widely scattered rain showers later tonight.
Low clouds, areas of fog, and light drizzle are forecast to develop over the eastern and southeastern plains tonight.
Widely scattered to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will dot the landscape on Wednesday. Our chances of getting wet are in the 20% to 60% range tonight into Wednesday, with the best bet of getting rain in Lea County and across the Permian Basin of West Texas.
A few of these may become severe on Wednesday and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated, localized flash flooding in southeastern New Mexico.
Sadly, the chances of a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains have decreased...only in the 20% range on Wednesday. However, the Memorial Day holiday weekend is looking pretty good for getting wet...30% to 50%.
The long-range Climate Prediction Centers' 6 to 10 Day and 8 to 14 Day Outlooks are still calling for near-average temperatures with above-normal chances of rainfall for the state.
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
- Summer-like heat expected through today, mainly for Big Bend and
along the Rio Grande where highs are expected to reach into the
low to mid 100s.
- Strong to severe storms will be possible today for areas
generally east and south of Midland/Odessa. Main threats will
include large hail, damaging winds, and lightning.
- Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday
where large hail, damaging winds will be threats as well as
localized flash flooding.
&&
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026
- The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the
lower to middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon.
- Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a
few spots across northwestern and north-central NM this afternoon.
- Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
526 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026
- Breezy and mostly dry conditions continue each afternoon
through the work week.
- Potential rain chances this weekend.
&&
At 11:30 AM MDT, Tuesday, May 19, 2026.
Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook (Wednesday).
SPC AC 191718
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected Wednesday
afternoon into night across portions of southwest Texas into eastern
New Mexico. Large hail --potentially in excess of two inches-- will
be the predominant severe-weather hazard. Isolated occurrences of
severe wind and/or marginally severe hail are expected Wednesday
afternoon into early evening from the Cumberland Plateau into
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude short-wave trough will move through the base of an
eastern Canada trough, with a belt of strong mid/upper-level winds
overspreading New England. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially
near the Four Corners will weaken Wednesday while moving into
confluent flow over the central High Plains. There is some model
signal for a lower-latitude impulse to move through northern Mexico
into NM and western TX Wednesday afternoon and evening.
In the low levels, a cold front will move south through New England
and the Mid-Atlantic with the western extension of the boundary
weakening through the forecast period across TX.
...Eastern New Mexico into southwest Texas and the Edwards
Plateau...
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s will combine with
steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a moderately unstable air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg across
portions of southwest TX into the Edwards Plateau. Instability is
expected to decrease with northward extent in the immediate lee of
the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Sangre De Cristo mountains, due to
limited boundary-layer moisture content.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
by mid/late afternoon along favored terrain, with initiation
potentially being aided by the mid-level disturbance mentioned in
the synopsis. A slight enhancement of the mid-level flow is forecast
across the area in association with the disturbance, which will
contribute to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the
instability axis. As such, supercell storm modes appear likely,
especially across southwest TX where the strongest instability is
expected to reside. Large hail potentially in excess of 2" will be
the predominant hazard with the afternoon and early evening storms.
A number of the 12z models suggest that the daytime storms will grow
upscale into an MCS across portions of the Permian Basin and Concho
Valley into Edwards Plateau Wednesday evening into night with a risk
for locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Given the above considerations, a level 2/Slight Risk has been added
where confidence is highest in longer-lived supercell potential.
...Cumberland Plateau into Mid-Atlantic and southern New England...
A hot and a moist air mass is forecast to develop ahead of the front
Wednesday afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg with
minimal capping. Convergence along the front along with terrain
influences are expected to foster a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from northern parts of
the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. The strongest vertical shear is expected to reside to the
north of the surface warm sector, which coupled with poor mid-level
lapse rates, should limit the potential for organized storm modes.
Nonetheless, model soundings indicate the presence of 1.0-1.5 km
deep, well-mixed boundary-layers, which will be supportive of
locally damaging downburst winds through the afternoon into early
evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also
possible.
..Mead.. 05/19/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1732Z (11:32AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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May 17, 2026.
May 18, 2026.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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