Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Brutal Cold Grips Nation.


Brutal Cold Outbreak Underway.



This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Anomalies.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temperature Anomalies.









  










One of the coldest low temperatures that I could find this morning using the National Weather Service Mesonet Network (maps above) was at Brichdale, Minnesota. This automated weather station reported a low of -49F (as of 9 AM MST) with a wind chill of -75F.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM) 
500 MB Heights & Temperatures.

Notice that the temps at the 500 millibar or roughly 18,000' MSL over northern and northeastern New Mexico are down to -30F. We should be grateful that this trough didn't dig a little further to the south and west. Its cold in New Mexico this morning but it could have been a lot worse.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Forecast Temps Valid @ 5 PM MST This Afternoon.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Forecast Temps Valid @ 5 PM MST This Afternoon.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Forecast Temps Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday Morning.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Forecast Temps Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday Morning.

Colder air overspread the area overnight behind the arctic cold front. Today's highs according to the Canadian (GEM) model will only be in the mid-upper 30's. Some of us may end up being slightly warmer and some of us may end up being slightly colder than this. Mid and high level clouds moving in from the southwest will play a big role in this today. This will also be a factor tonight in how cold we get here in southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas.

If our skies clear and the wind associated with the second surge of arctic air moving southward into the local area tonight are not too strong, then we very well may see lows tomorrow morning in the single digits and teens. 


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Forecast Temps Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Forecast Temps Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

If this Canadian (GEM) model forecast is correct then southeastern New Mexico may not reach freezing Monday afternoon, with most of us struggling to see 30F. 


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Temperature Forecast Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM)
Temperature Forecast Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

Tuesday morning looks equally cold if not a little colder than Monday morning for southeastern New Mexico. Remember that I am only displaying one model's graphics here (Canadian - GEM). All of the models are forecasting different temperatures for the local area, which is typical. Depending upon the state of the sky, the winds, and how dry and cold the airmass is, some of us may end up being colder than this model depicts, and some of us may be a little warmer. Bottom line is that we are looking at some cold temps for the next couple of days.


This Mornings GFS 10-Day Forecast
For Hobbs, New Mexico.

Here is a good example of the variation in the model's temperature forecast. This mornings 12Z run of the GFS has Hobbs reaching a high this afternoon of 42F. A low tonight of 21F, and a high Monday of 31F.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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