After Weeks Of Temps's In The 60's & 70's - Winter Returns Tonight.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday, January 23, 2014.

A weak upper-level disturbance is forecast by the models to drop southward to near the Four Corners Region by sunrise tomorrow morning. This disturbance is then forecast to open up and dissipate as it moves eastward across Colorado into the Plains Thursday night into Friday.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM/WRF Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 3 PM MST This Afternoon.

Southeastern New Mexico will see one more day of mild temps today before a backdoor arctic cold front moves into the area around or after sunset this evening. Much colder air will overspread the area tonight into Friday behind this front.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM/WRF Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 3 PM MST Thursday Afternoon.

Strong gusty north to northeasterly winds will accompany the frontal passage and persists into Thursday morning. Wind chill values will drop down to -10F tonight into tomorrow morning across the Texas Panhandle where a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect. Thankfully our wind chill values here in southeastern New Mexico will not be that cold, but we will have wind chill vales in the single digits and teens tonight into tomorrow morning.

Our high temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20's and 30's. This after weeks of the 60's and 70's. So guess what...we are not done with winter. And another shot of arctic will arrive again early next week.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM/WRF Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday Morning.

Thursday night into Friday morning is going to be cold. Just how cold is a bit tricky to figure out. We are currently forecast to get anywhere from a few snow flurries to perhaps a light dusting of snow out of this system late tonight into tomorrow. The Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe Mountains may pick up a couple of inches of snow. So if our skies clear, our winds die down, and we have any snow on the ground at all by Friday morning, then I think that the models may be too warm with our forecast lows. I would expect to see some widespread teens with a few single digit lows.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS MSLP Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AP MST Thursday Evening.

This mornings 12Z run of the GFS model is forecasting a strong surface ridge of high pressure back building into central and eastern New Mexico. East Canyon wind gusts will approach 40-50 mph in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas as this surge or arctic air moves westward into the Rio Grande Valley and beyond late tonight into Thursday. See the Special Weather Statement issued by the Albuquerque NWS Office for more details.

A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains for Thursday morning through Thursday evening for northeasterly winds that will gust up to around 60 mph. Please see the Special Weather Statement issued by the Midland NWS Office for more details.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM/WRF Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday Morning.

I'm a little perplexed by the snowfall forecast map above. Apparently this model thinks that a broken band of heavy snow (with up to 8"0 will fall across parts of west Texas southeast of El Paso to just southeast of Midland. I'm not sure I buy this though. But then again there have been many times over the years that these weak upper-level short waves drop further south than the models forecast, and end up dropping heavier snowfall amounts than forecast too. So we will see. Id love to see 8" fall here in southeastern New Mexico.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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