Last week in my post ‘‘The cause of pause in global warming,” I presented data showing that the lack of global warming was not the ‘biggest mystery in climate science,’ “but, in fact, it really isn’t a mystery at all, it was predicted in 1999 on the basis of consistent, recurring patterns of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and global climate.”
“Each time the PDO was warm, global climate warmed; each time the PDO was cool, global climate cooled.” “Each of the two PDO warm periods (1915-1945 and 1978-1998) and the three cool periods (1880-1915, 1945-1977, 1999-2014) lasted 25-30 years. If the flip of the PDO into its cool mode in 1999 persists, the global climate should cool for the next several decades. “
Conclusions
“The ‘mysterious pause’ in global warming is really not mysterious at all. It is simply the continuation of climatic cycles that have been going on for hundreds of years. It was predicted in 1999, based on repeated patterns of cyclical warm and cool PDO phases so it is neither mysterious nor surprising. The lack of global warming for the past 17 years is just as predicted. Continued cooling for the next few decades will totally vindicate this prediction. Time and nature will be the final judge of these predictions.
What drives these oceanic/climatic cycles remains equivocal. Correlations with various solar parameters appear to be quite good, but the causal mechanism remains unclear.”
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My Thoughts.
A war is ragging in the weather/climate/political world and its centered around
"Global Climate Change". Which by the way until recently was referred to as "Global Warming". The supporters of this theory simply do not understand or refuse to understand that the planet's climate cycles. It always has and always will.
If you take a look out New Mexico's climate records its really pretty easy to see the effects of the
Warm/Cold PDO Cycles on our weather. New Mexico's wettest year "1941" occurred during the Warm PDO Cycle of 1915-1945. We had one of the longest stretches of wet years on record during the Warm PDO Cycle of 1978-1998 here in southeastern New Mexico.
Likewise New Mexico suffers multiple droughts during the Cold PDO's such as 1880-1915, and 1945-1977 with the worst drought on record during the 1950's. Now that the Pacific has "flipped" again and we are back in a Cold PDO Cycle 1999-2014, once again drought has returned. Remember how dry 2011 was? With this current Cold PDO Cycle only roughly about half over we can expect to see more drought in the coming years in my opinion.
Its not that hard to figure out. When the Pacific Ocean cools down we loose an important supplier of moisture here in the Desert Southwest and droughts prevail. Our summers tend to be hotter also. Our winters also tend to be drier and colder. Most of the coldest temperatures ever recorded in New Mexico have occurred during Cold PDO Cycle's. Of there are variations and exceptions but overall the trend it pretty telling in my opinion.
There is a fly in the ointment however and that is what is going on with the Sun. In spite of the constant bombardment from the Political Left concerning Global Warming, there is a growing number of scientists and climatologists who believe that we may be headed towards another Little Ice Age. If in fact we are headed into another Little Ice Age..the impacts upon humanity will be far more devastating and far reaching than Global Warming could ever be.
Listed below are some of my blogs about this subject.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.
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