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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

End Of January Could Possibly Be Brutally Cold!


Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday, January 28, 2014.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday, January 28, 2014.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday, January 28, 2014.

Both the U.S. GFS Model and the European (ECMWF) model are simply falling off the earth so to speak with their long-range forecasts for the last week of this month. I have been watching these two models over the past week and what I've been seeing is simply unreal.

Yea I know that we are talking about models trying to forecast something that is two weeks away. I also realize they historically the models are lousy at this when trying to forecast this far out. We'd better hope that what me and a whole lot of other people are seeing is fantasy and nothing more. 

Last nights 06Z/11 PM MST run of the GFS was forecasting a temperature of 8F in Roswell by around noon on the 28th, after a low that morning of -3F. How about the Clines Corners and Tucumcari areas...highs near 0F to the single digits above 0F. This after lows as cold as -30F.

Should we panic? No, of course not. Do we believe that it will get this cold? Maybe, maybe not. You always have to wake up and take note though when these two models latch onto this type of cold this far in advance. What seems clear though is that a change will be coming towards the end of the month. And that change has all of the appearances of being much colder that what we've seen recently. 

How cold and for how long...unknown for now. Trust me we will want to keep a close eye on this!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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