Looking East From Alamogordo, NM.
Severe T-Storms - Heavy Rains - Flash Flooding.
Severe Weather Outlook Today.
A weak cold front is forecast to sag slowly southward over the local area this afternoon and evening. Favorable wind shear, instability, surface capes, and lapse rates combined with a rich moisture laded atmosphere (my dew point temp in Carlsbad at 9 AM MDT is 70ºF) will all combine to produce clusters of thunderstorms today into early Monday morning.
Thunderstorms will become severe this afternoon and evening and will be capable of producing large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rainfall may also produce flash flooding. The area is still saturated from recent heavy to excessive rainfall so flash flooding will develop rapidly with any thunderstorm that produces heavy rains.
Short-range model forecasts indicate that storm total rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" will be possible with isolated totals of 3" to 6".
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!