2026 Monsoon Outlook & How Will This Years Developing El Niño Impact Us?
Slurry Drops.
Seven Cabins Fire - Capitan Mountains.
The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office (NWS) has released its 2026 New Mexico Annual Summer Monsoon Outlook. I've uploaded some of their maps and graphics below.
For simplification purposes, I have listed some of our southeastern New Mexico and Sacramento Mountains' selected highest summer monsoon rainfall totals (June 1st through September 30th) below. Note the official start of our annual monsoon is June 15th and runs through September 30th. What I've noticed about our highest summer monsoon rainfall totals across southeastern New Mexico and the Sacramento Mountains is that they are extremely variable.
This year's summer outlook calls for a wet start to our monsoon in June over all of the state. Current long-range forecasts in the outlook call for a normal monsoon for the eastern half of the state this summer (June-August).
Chances for an above-normal monsoon from the central mountain chain westward are higher. Including the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains.
However, there are a number of flies in the ointment that may make this year's monsoon one to remember, or not. The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai underwater volcanic eruption, which climaxed on January 15, 2022, changed the equation over the past four years. Including (some climatologists think) warming the Pacific Oceanic temperature profile (near record warmth in the eastern Pacific), and altering the normal subtropical and polar jet stream patterns. And ejecting tremendous amounts of aerosols that affected the amount of sunlight reaching the planet.
Some of the scientists and climatologists believe that the atmosphere has settled down after this massive disruption, and has almost returned back to its normal state. This is a disputed subject, so make up your own mind.
The Cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) continues while we are moving into El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Again, the hype around this being a super El Niño rages on. Current analysis and forecasts do call for the possibility of a strong to very strong El Niño, but a historic one is up for debate.
All of these factors will combine to affect our summer monsoon and how El Niño affects the Desert Southwest, New Mexico, and Texas this coming summer, fall, winter, and next spring. With record oceanic heat in the eastern Pacific, conditions are favorable for above-normal tropical storm activity there. This could have a huge impact on our weather (rainfall) this summer and fall if stronger and more frequent Hurricane development is noted, and that tropical moisture gets pulled northeastward into the state.
Could this be a relatively mild and wet to a very wet summer and fall for New Mexico and nearby areas? Yes, that is a possibility. Could we see much above normal rainfall and flash flooding this summer and fall? Yes, that too is a possibility.
Keep in mind that, given the number of fires in the state, especially in the mountains, over the past 20 years, we are primed for lots of flash flooding events. Should an above normal monsoon combined with a very strong to record El Niño develop, then these dangers could ramp up greatly. Do I think that this may happen? It's possible, but again, the jury is still out on this, and there are no clear indicators that this will happen. To be honest, should this pan out, then many areas could see devastating, even record-breaking flash flooding.
Even with a normal to above normal monsoon, we are still faced with the likelihood of above normal flash flooding, especially in and downstream of the burnscar areas. This problem isn't going away anytime soon...likely for years to come.
I'm not a fear monger at all and I certainly am aware that many of our folks in some of our mountain communities do not want to hear that the flash flood potential could be above normal this year. I get it. Ruidoso has been hit hard multiple times by the fires and the ensuing burn scar flash flood events. The last thing they and other communities need or want is more flooding.
Now is the time to prepare just in case. Don't wait until the heavy rains and floods arrive. Heed all local and National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. They may save your life. Be very weather-aware with your situational awareness at its highest levels this summer and fall, and be prepared to act quickly in case the weather does turn dangerous in or near your location or area of concern.
More on all of this as we head into the summer and the pattern becomes clearer.
(As Of 7 AM MDT This Morning).
(As Of 7 AM MDT This Morning).
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 804 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Location Speed Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... I-40 @ Sedillo Hill (NMDOT) 36 MPH 0505 PM 05/21 ...Chaves County... Dexter 50 MPH 0640 PM 05/21 Roswell Air Center 35 MPH 0646 PM 05/21 ...Colfax County... I-25 @ Raton Pass (NMDOT) 42 MPH 0120 PM 05/21 ...De Baca County... De Baca North 35 MPH 0440 PM 05/21 ...Guadalupe County... SE Vaughn 37 MPH 0355 PM 05/21 ...Harding County... Solano 3.8 NE 45 MPH 0355 PM 05/21 Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon) 37 MPH 0305 PM 05/21 Mosquero 9.5 E 35 MPH 0425 PM 05/21 ...Los Alamos County... Los Alamos 3 ESE (LANL5) 38 MPH 0745 PM 05/21 Los Alamos 5 SSW (LANL4) 36 MPH 0745 PM 05/21 Los Alamos Airport 35 MPH 1249 PM 05/21 ...McKinley County... Zuni Pueblo 7 NW (Zuni Butte 38 MPH 1242 PM 05/21 Gallup Airport 36 MPH 0146 PM 05/21 ...Quay County... Tucumcari Muni Airport 45 MPH 0607 PM 05/21 Endee 2 SW 43 MPH 0552 PM 05/21 Tucumcari 42 MPH 0615 PM 05/21 Logan 35 MPH 0615 PM 05/21 ...Rio Arriba County... Espanola 4 NW (Black Mesa) 35 MPH 0234 PM 05/21 ...San Miguel County... Las Vegas Muni Airport 41 MPH 0335 PM 05/21 I-25 @ Rowe (NMDOT) 38 MPH 0605 PM 05/21 ...Sandoval County... Frijoles (Tower) 41 MPH 0208 PM 05/21 ...Santa Fe County... Santa Fe Muni Airport 41 MPH 0144 PM 05/21 I-25 @ La Bajada (NMDOT) 40 MPH 0425 PM 05/21 Glorieta 6 WNW 35 MPH 0115 PM 05/21 ...Socorro County... Contreras 1 ESE (Sevilleta) 41 MPH 0311 PM 05/21 Carrizozo 15 NW (Chupadera) 37 MPH 0139 PM 05/21 ...Taos County... Lama 4 NW (Wild Rivers) 41 MPH 1249 PM 05/21 Arroyo Seco 3 SW 40 MPH 0415 PM 05/21 Questa Municipal Airport 39 MPH 1235 PM 05/21 ...Torrance County... Moriarty Muni Airport 44 MPH 0135 PM 05/21 I-40 @ U.S. 285 (NMDOT) 37 MPH 0320 PM 05/21 Clines Corners 1 SSE 37 MPH 0411 PM 05/21 ...Union County... Amidstad South 43 MPH 0605 PM 05/21 SW Clayton 42 MPH 0725 PM 05/21 Amistad 41 MPH 0605 PM 05/21 Clayton Muni Airpark 40 MPH 0437 PM 05/21 Clayton LRC 40 MPH 0510 PM 05/21 ...HAIL REPORTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Location Size Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Colfax County... Maxwell 0.25 in 0125 PM 05/21 ...Curry County... 1 SSW Clovis 0.25 in 0511 PM 05/21 ...Roosevelt County... 6 E Milnesand 1.00 in 0415 PM 05/21 5 N Milnesand 1.00 in 0436 PM 05/21 7 SSE Pep 1.00 in 0451 PM 05/21 8 ENE Milnesand 1.00 in 0530 PM 05/21 3 E Milnesand 0.75 in 0620 PM 05/21 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Chaves County... ROSWELL 0.07 in 0745 PM 05/21 Roswell Air Center T in 0751 PM 05/21 ...Colfax County... Raton Crews Airport T in 0753 PM 05/21 ...Curry County... Clovis 3 WSW 0.10 in 0750 PM 05/21 Clovis 0.07 in 0746 PM 05/21 Clovis 0.06 in 0749 PM 05/21 Clovis Muni Airport T in 0756 PM 05/21 ...Roosevelt County... Portales 0.05 in 0500 PM 05/21 ...Union County... Clayton Muni Airpark 0.06 in 0755 PM 05/21 Sedan 5 N 0.05 in 0746 PM 05/21 &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.