Increasing Chances For T-Storms This Evening & Overnight - Severe T-Storms Saturday!
Virga North Of Brantley Lake.
A deep early spring mid-upper level closed low was parked just off the northwestern coast of California late this afternoon. It will kick out a series of disturbances that will rotate northeast across the state tonight into Sunday. This, with strengthening southwesterly winds aloft, will add instability to the atmosphere tonight into Sunday.
The dryline has backed west into the Pecos Valley the past couple of mornings, producing low clouds and dew point temperatures in the 50s. It will back westward up against the central mountain chain of the state tonight into Saturday. Increasing low-level moisture in the return flow upon southeasterly winds will advect lots of moisture east of the dryline tonight and Saturday. Low clouds and areas of fog will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning.
As of 5 PM MDT this Friday afternoon, several severe thunderstorms have popped up over eastern New Mexico near Tucumcari and Clovis. A strong thunderstorm was located north of Hope and has started moving to the southeast. Scattered light rain showers dot the Sacramento mountains. A dissipating thunderstorm was approaching Carlsbad from the southwest and was kicking up blowing dust in town with a gust to 40 mph southwest of town.
Scattered thunderstorms and rain showers will prevail overnight into Saturday from the central mountain chain east out onto the eastern and southeastern plains of the state. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall this evening and possibly overnight in a few areas.
Localized areas of blowing dust will accompany any strong/severe thunderstorm that develops this afternoon and evening, especially with high-based dry thunderstorms.
The tornado threat is very low, but not completely out of the question with the strongest supercell thunderstorms that manage to form.
Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms, especially supercell thunderstorms that manage to develop, may cause localized flash flooding across the plains east of the mountains tonight into Saturday night. Overall storm total rainfall amounts are forecast to be in the .25" to 1.00" range. A few spots may see totals up to 1" to 3", especially if training storms develop.
Saturday looks to be a more active day as far as severe thunderstorms are concerned. Who gets most of the severe weather will depend upon who clears out from the low clouds and fog the earliest, where the sun's heating can add to the instability of the atmosphere. For now, counties along the NM/TX state line have the best chance of this happening, with a decreasing threat for severe weather from the central mountain chain westward.
Drier and windier weather returns Monday and Tuesday.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 524 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Rain chances return this afternoon through the weekend. A few storms may be strong to severe Saturday into Sunday, with damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding being the main hazards. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 153 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 134 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday, favoring central and eastern areas. High chances exist for widespread beneficial rainfall across eastern New Mexico. Some storms may become strong to severe across eastern NM, especially near the TX border. - Strong west to southwest winds will return Sunday and peak on Monday and Tuesday. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel for large and high-profile vehicles. - Critical fire weather conditions may return Sunday and Monday across eastern and portions of central New Mexico, but fuels may not be receptive to fire spread due to rainfall from today and Saturday. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1133 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1104 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. Best chances for rain will be east of the Rio Grande. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and blowing dust. - Dry and breezy conditions Sunday through Tuesday, with blowing dust possible. Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions. - Near normal temperatures through next week. &&
Today.
At 4:21 MDT Friday, April 10, 2026.
At 5 PM DT Friday, April 10, 2026.
Valid At 6 AM MDT This Morning.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, April 12, 2026.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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