Long Awaited Pattern Change Coming - T-Storms Wednesday & Thursday.
Near 16-Springs Canyon.
Record Heat Monday.
(Monday's Highs & Previous Record Highs For The Date).
Carlsbad Cavern City Air Terminal Airport ASOS 108 - Previous 104 In 1930.
Artesia Climate COOP Station 107 - Previous 104 in 1910.
Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 105 - Previous 105 in 2024.
Artesia Airport AWOS 104 - Previous 102 in 2024.
Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS 104 - Previous 100 in 2024.
Alamogordo Municipal Airport AWOS 100 - Previous 100 in 2024.
Elk Climate COOP Station 98 - Previous 93 in 2002.
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport Near Ruidoso 91 - Previous 86 in 2019.
Ruidoso Climate COOP Station 89 - Previous 87 in 2011.
Cloudcroft Climate COOP Station 81 - Previous 80 in 1969.
A Heat Advisory continues in effect today for Chaves, Eddy, central and southern Lea Counties, as well as across the Permian Basin. Today's forecast highs across southeastern New Mexico and West Texas are expected to come in close to yesterday's readings...maybe a degree or two cooler.
A couple of upper-level shortwaves will rotate southeastward around our subtropical monsoon high today and again on Wednesday and Thursday. These combined with recycled subtropical moisture will aid in the development of a few scattered severe thunderstorms across northeastern and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, and again Wednesday through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will produce a localized flash flood threat also.
Late Wednesday afternoon and evening, southeastern New Mexico has a chance of seeing widely scattered thunderstorms, a few of which might be severe with strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Repeat this again Thursday afternoon and evening. Northern portions of the southeastern plains have the best chances of getting wet Wednesday and Thursday.
A few of these t-storms may produce a localized flash flood threat from heavy downpours Wednesday but more so on Thursday across the southeastern plains.
Across the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains, widely scattered to scattered t-storms will become more widespread starting Wednesday, continuing into the weekend. The best chances for getting wet will be Wednesday and Thursday. Locally heavy downpours will pose a localized flash flood threat through the period but especially on Thursday over and near the Ruidoso area recent burn scars.
Looking down the road, our persistent pain-in-the-neck subtropical high pressure dome that has taken up residence over the state and nearby areas this summer will take a beating over the next week to ten days. A series of upper-level shortwave troughs of low pressure will swing southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin beginning this weekend and continuing into next week and the following weekend
Going forward in time, this will weaken the stubborn ridge. This reflects the long-awaited pattern change I've been talking about. In the short term, periods of subtropical moisture will work its way northward out of Mexico and into New Mexico next week. To what extent this means is not clear now. But overall we can expect to cool down closer to normal daytime highs with increased chances for showers and t-storms over parts of the state.
Over the next week to ten days, we can expect to continue to see above-normal temperatures for most of the local area. In time, this too will come to an end as we move into more of a fall-like weather pattern.
The eastern Pacific Ocean has been very active recently as far as tropical storms are concerned, and this will continue thanks to El Niño. At some point, tropical moisture from one or more of these tropical storms/hurricanes is likely to get pulled northeastward into the area as the Pacific Northwest upper-level troughs of low pressure continue to dig southeastward into the U.S.
Our meteorological fall starts one week from today (Tuesday, September 1st through November 30th). September on average is the wettest month of the year for the southeastern plains. As the annual summer monsoon winds down in September, many other areas of the state are not as wet as they are in July and August, and this holds true for the Sacramento Mountains. However, September can and has seen very heavy rains and significant flash flood events from remnant tropical moisture from dying Hurricanes and Tropical Storms.
El Niño is forecast to increase our chances of a wet fall this year, but to what extent is still uncertain.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 - Hot temperatures continue today with major to extreme heat risk. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible. - Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period, but decrease relative to the past several days starting Wednesday. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over portions of the region late Wednesday and Thursday. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1124 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1115 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026 - Storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds each afternoon and evening over parts of eastern New Mexico through Thursday. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with the strongest storms over northeast and east central areas each afternoon and evening through Thursday. - Record and near-record high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-related illnesses each afternoon for the rest of the week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1142 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026 - Heat Advisory in effect for Rio Grande Valley of Texas, Dona Ana County, NM, Luna County, NM, and parts of the Tularosa Basin and White Sands Missile Range until 9 PM MDT. - Record high temperatures for the Borderland today and near- record through the rest of the week, with lowland temperatures reaching 105 in several places today. - Isolated rain showers and storms in the mountains today and tomorrow, especially in the Sacramento Mountains. &&
(At 6 AM MDT This Tuesday Morning).
(Valid Today Through Saturday, September 5, 2026).
Wednesday.
Thursday.
European (ECMWF) 16-Day Forecast Temps & Precipitation For Carlsbad.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will Not" To See...107.
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