Going From Bad To Worse!
Between Artesia & Roswell.
This summer has become another summer from Hades for southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Much as I had suspected, our very strong El Niño has played a major role in suppressing our annual summer monsoon, keeping it mostly centered along and west of the central mountain chains of the state thus far. This has kept us under a massive, unrelenting dome of high pressure that has squashed our normal summer t-storm activity locally.
Don't get your hopes up yet because it's not about to change over the next two weeks. If we are lucky, we will see a pattern shift/change the first week of September with the behemoth high weakening some and sliding east of the state, thus allowing a more favorable southerly flow into the area and hopefully increasing our t-storm chances.
Until then, we can expect to see more seemingly never-ending days of 100º to 106º daily high temps across most of the southeastern plains. A weak cold front (more like a weak cool front) is forecast to slide southward into the area the first of next week, and this may drop high temps some across the eastern plains for a day or two, and give them a better chance of getting wet.
Across the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains, you can expect more of the same. Widely scattered to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and t-storms, mostly across the higher elevations. Occasionally, a few of these will become robust enough to dump heavy rainfall and pose an isolated flash flood threat...as has been the case so far this summer, the Ruidoso burn scar areas will be most susceptible to flash flooding.
One thing we are starting to see is upper-level troughs of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska to the West Coast. In time, we should also start to see these upper-level troughs "pick up" or grab hold of the increased Hurricane activity that is showing up in the model forecasts west of the Central Mexican Coast. Typically, this gets underway in September and continues into October. Hopefully El Niño will play a role in this and swing the remnant moisture from these tropical systems northeastward into the Desert Southwest and New Mexico this fall and help break our ongoing six-year drought.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 - Very warm to hot temperatures with near zero shower/storm chances through the end of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The upper-level ridge of high pressure remains centered near the Four Corners region, extending from the southern California coast to west Texas. Subsequent large-scale sinking motion under the ridge yields continued hot and dry weather conditions. Widespread triple digit highs continue to be expected, while the rest see readings in the mid-to-upper 90s. Many spots in the Big Bend top out between 105 and 110 degrees today and Friday. Near zero rain chances are in the forecast due to a lack of moisture and sources of lift. Don`t forget to stay hydrated and take frequent brakes under shade if you must be outdoors for an extended period of time. Greening && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Sunday and Monday will be very similar to the last few days with highs in the 90s to around 100F for most and isolated storms over the higher terrain. Heading into the middle of the coming week, the ridge that has been meandering across the US will flatten out over the southeastern US and the Gulf. This will not change temperatures much as highs will remain above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s for most. It will dry the region out and push rain chances to below 5% each day. Continued southerly/southeasterly flow persists and that may lead to a storm or two developing in the vicinity of any of the mountainous zones in the area. Overnight lows in the 60s to 70s can be expected each night through the extended. -Stickney &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 118 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 - Greater storm coverage will continue today and Friday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, heavy rainfall, ponding of water on roads, as well as a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-major heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Storm coverage is still expected to peak today and Friday as moisture deepens beneath a strong monsoon high drifting north and east thru southern CO. The 18Z KABQ RAOB showed a PWAT of 1.17" with no mid level subsidence inversion and H5 heights still at 598dm. Surface dewpoints are hovering in the mid to upper 40s at most METARs as of 1pm. 12Z CAMs and probabilistic QPF shows higher peak QPF near the higher terrain today before trending slightly lower Friday. A couple strong storms may occur again today and Friday over portions of the area but shear is weaker than yesterday. Temps will remain hot but a few degrees cooler than recent days where storm coverage is greater. Southeast NM and the Four Corners region will still see fewer storms so temps are likely to be near record highs once again. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Saturday thru Tuesday still looks drier and hotter with the main storm focus over far northern and far western NM as the 598dm H5 high centers over eastern NM. Drier upper level air rounding the base of the upper high will also stabilize the airmass while PWATs fall below 0.75" in most areas. Any of the storms over far northern and western NM will still be capable of very localized heavy rain and strong outflow wind gusts. Temps will continue to rise over the weekend and early next week with record-to-near- record highs in many areas, especially central and eastern NM. The main change to the forecast is regarding the medium to extended range pattern. Recent model guidance has trended toward the monsoon high drifting farther west into southeast AZ while an upper level shortwave trough exits the northern Rockies on Monday. A moist backdoor cold front will attempt to move south into eastern NM sometime between Monday night and Tuesday night. This would serve to increase storm coverage over northern and eastern NM by mid next week along with trending temps several degrees cooler. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, near daily records. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Storm limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry conditions spread area wide over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The subtropical high will remain in place over the Four Corners today, bringing temperatures to near-record high levels for the lowlands for this time of year (100-103). Weak disturbances embedded in NE flow aloft will help spark thunderstorm development this afternoon. But this will mainly be focused over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Region. However, there is just enough instability and recycled moisture (mostly aloft) working around the ridge to allow for isolated thunderstorm coverage in the lowlands, though mainly north of El Paso. This is supported by most HREF members and other CAMS as well. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the main threats, but again, mostly over the higher terrain areas, as the lowlands will see dewpoints mix-out into the 40s. Friday will bring similar conditions, with a little less moisture to work with. Storms again will favor the higher terrain and drift SW towards the lowlands, and less favorable environment. A few isolated storms will still be possible, mainly in Sierra and northern Dona Ana Counties and parts of the Tularosa Basin. Precip will continue to diminish in coverage through the weekend, with the Gila perhaps being the lone holdout for Saturday before drier and warmer (-4C at 500mb) air aloft moves in as the subtropical ridge settles a little closer, over northern New Mexico. It`ll slowly sprawl-out, with a ridge axis extending from northern Arizona eastward to the Texas Panhandle. As a result, precip chances will be heavily suppressed, and temperatures will remain about 6 to 12 degrees above normal through the period. Max temps may come close to Heat Advisory criteria in the El Paso Lower Valley on some days, but most lowland areas look to see highs around 100 to 103. &&
(Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Friday, Sept 4, 2026).
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There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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